Volatility in the U.S. Treasury market has risen sharply even as Bitcoin and U.S. equities remain relatively calm, according to a ChainCatcher report. The MOVE Index, which tracks expected Treasury volatility, climbed from about 80 on Tuesday to 104 on Thursday, its highest level since March. At that time, the index had briefly reached 199. In contrast, the Volmex 30-day Bitcoin implied volatility index, or BVIV, was around 37, close to its yearly low of 35, while the Cboe VIX, which measures expected volatility for the S&P 500, was also near its yearly low at 14. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields touched 5.2% on Thursday before easing back to 5.163%. Over the past 20 trading days, the correlation between the VIX and MOVE fell to -0.06, turning negative for the first time since April 2024. The correlation between BVIV and MOVE stood at -0.37, a relatively low level compared with recent years. The report said rising Treasury volatility often points to tighter financial conditions, but BTC and U.S. stocks have not yet reflected the same degree of risk seen in the bond market.
Volatility in the U.S. Treasury market has picked up sharply, while Bitcoin and U.S. equities have remained comparatively calm, according to ChainCatcher.
Treasury volatility reaches its highest level since March
The MOVE Index, which measures expected volatility in the Treasury market, rose from about 80 on Tuesday to 104 on Thursday, marking its highest reading since March. At that time, the index had briefly reached 199.
At the same time, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note touched 5.2% on Thursday before pulling back to 5.163%.
Bitcoin and equity volatility gauges remain near yearly lows
By comparison, the Volmex 30-day Bitcoin implied volatility index, BVIV, was around 37, close to its yearly low of 35. The Cboe VIX, which tracks expected volatility for the S&P 500, was also near its yearly low at 14.
Data showed that over the past 20 trading days, the correlation between the VIX and MOVE fell to -0.06, the first negative reading since April 2024. The correlation between BVIV and MOVE was -0.37, a relatively low level in recent years.
Bond market volatility diverges from risk assets
The analysis said U.S. Treasuries are a core foundation of the global financial and credit system, and rising volatility in that market usually signals tighter financial conditions. So far, however, BTC and U.S. stocks have not reflected the same degree of volatility risk seen in bonds.
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