According to CoinTelegraph, blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs reported that prediction market trading volume reached $36.6 billion in the first quarter of 2026. This was the first time the sector surpassed onchain gambling, which recorded $14 billion in trading volume during the same quarter. The comparison marks a shift between the two categories tracked in the report, with prediction markets taking the lead in quarterly transaction activity.
Prediction markets reached $36.6 billion in the first quarter
TRM Labs also reviewed the recent performance of onchain gambling. The sector recorded $51 billion in total trading volume across 2025 and set a quarterly all-time high of $15 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, onchain gambling volume stood at $14 billion, while prediction market volume rose to $36.6 billion, creating the first recorded lead for prediction markets over onchain gambling in the data cited by the report.
The report said that despite a broader pullback in the crypto market, neither prediction markets nor onchain gambling experienced a clear decline in trading volume. TRM Labs attributed this resilience mainly to the continued activity of loyal user groups. In other words, even as overall market conditions weakened, core participants on both types of platforms continued to trade, helping to sustain transaction volume.
High Rollers accounted for most transaction volume
User structure was a central part of the TRM Labs findings. High Rollers represented only 6.3% of individual wallets, yet they contributed 91.8% of total transaction volume. This indicates that activity in the tracked platforms was heavily concentrated among a small group of high-value users. At the same time, monthly volume from regular bettors increased from $17 million in January 2022 to $188 million in March 2026.
The report also noted that transaction volume from everyday gamblers grew 12 times over the same period, showing clear expansion among incremental user groups. Alongside the concentration of volume among High Rollers, TRM Labs presented this increase in regular and everyday user activity as part of the broader development of the two sectors.
On the risk side, TRM Labs said the two platform categories face different financial crime concerns. Gambling platforms are more exposed to money laundering risk, while prediction markets are more often subject to scrutiny around insider trading. Although both categories maintained substantial transaction volumes, the report distinguished their user profiles, transaction patterns and risk considerations.