Only 20 Trading Days Left; Senate Faces Multiple Hurdles
According to CoinDesk, investment bank Jefferies warned in its latest report that the U.S. CLARITY Act still faces significant legislative obstacles in the Senate, and progress over the coming weeks could exacerbate crypto market volatility. Although the bill previously passed the Senate Banking Committee by a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9, only about 20 legislative days remain before Congress recesses in August. Jefferies highlighted that the Senate must still complete bill integration, procedural votes, reconciliation with the House version, and submission to the president for signature — an extremely tight window. Any delay in any of these steps could cause the bill to stall within the current congressional cycle.
Polymarket Odds Plummet: From 70% to 48%
Data from the prediction market Polymarket confirms the legislative difficulty. As of the report's publication, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing by the end of 2026 had dropped to 48% from 70% in mid-May — a decline of over 20 percentage points. This shift reflects market pessimism about legislative efficiency before the recess. Jefferies believes that the continued drop in probability will directly weigh on the valuation of crypto-related stocks, as the market had already partially priced in the positive impact of regulatory clarity.
Two Scenarios: Passage vs. Delay
Jefferies detailed two scenarios in its report. If the bill passes smoothly, it would establish a clear federal regulatory framework for digital assets, prompting banks, asset managers, and exchanges to accelerate their expansion into tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and other services. It would also facilitate more crypto ETF approvals and IPOs of crypto infrastructure companies. Conversely, if the legislation is delayed, regulatory uncertainty would persist, causing traditional financial institutions to slow down their blockchain initiatives, while institutions that have already entered the space may face compliance risks. The report specifically noted that the market performance of crypto-related stocks such as Circle (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN), and Bullish (BLSH) will be highly correlated with the bill's progress.
Additionally, Jefferies emphasized that from a long-term perspective, the biggest challenge for stablecoin issuer Circle remains competition from banks, fintechs, and payment companies — regardless of regulatory changes. Even if the CLARITY Act passes, Circle will need to maintain a differentiated advantage as traditional financial giants enter the stablecoin arena.