CLARITY Act Faces Senate Hurdles: Jefferies Warns of Market Volatility with Only 20 Legislative Days Left

News Editor

2026-06-30 17:01:22

Investment bank Jefferies has released a report highlighting that the US CLARITY Act, despite passing the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan 15-9 vote, faces significant procedural obstacles in the full Senate. With only about 20 legislative days remaining before the August recess, the probability of passage by end of 2026 has dropped from 70% to 48% on Polymarket. Jefferies notes that if the bill passes, it will establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, benefiting banks, asset managers, and exchanges. Delay would prolong regulatory uncertainty, affecting stocks of Circle (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN), and Bullish (BLSH). Over the long term, the bigger challenge for stablecoin issuer Circle comes from competition with banks and fintech firms rather than regulatory changes.

CLARITY ActJefferiesUS regulationPolymarketcrypto market volatilityCircleCoinbasestablecoin competition

CLARITY Act Legislative Timeline: Only 20 Legislative Days Left After Bipartisan Committee Vote

In its latest research report, investment bank Jefferies highlighted that while the US CLARITY Act successfully passed the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan 15-9 vote, it still faces major legislative hurdles on the Senate floor. With approximately only 20 legislative days remaining before the August congressional recess, the timeline for completing bill reconciliation, procedural votes, coordination with the House version, and final submission to the President is extremely tight. Polymarket data reflects growing market skepticism—the probability of the bill being passed by the end of 2026 has fallen from 70% in mid-May to 48%, a decline of over 30%.

Jefferies believes that in the coming weeks, legislative progress on CLARITY Act will continue to inject volatility into the crypto market. If the bill passes smoothly, it would establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, incentivizing banks, asset managers, and exchanges to accelerate their deployment in tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and other related businesses. This could also catalyze more crypto ETFs and IPOs of crypto infrastructure companies. Conversely, if the legislation is delayed, prolonged regulatory uncertainty would likely cause traditional financial institutions to slow down their blockchain initiatives.

Market Impact: Concept Stocks Under Pressure, Long-Term Competitive Dynamics Are Key

The report estimates that the legislative process will continue to impact the market performance of crypto-related stocks, including Circle (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN), and Bullish (BLSH), as well as select crypto assets. Jefferies also noted that from a long-term perspective, the bigger challenge for stablecoin issuer Circle is not regulatory changes, but rather competition from banks, fintech companies, and payment firms. This means that even if the CLARITY Act is ultimately enacted, Circle will need to defend its moat in an increasingly crowded stablecoin market.

This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan.

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