The U.S. cryptocurrency policy has entered a critical second half. The CLARITY Act, a key legislative priority for the industry, faces significant hurdles: it needs 60 votes in the Senate, but tight timing, intense bipartisan battles, and the impending departure of key figures make passage increasingly difficult. The bill aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, but its advancement remains uncertain.
Meanwhile, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is hampered by vacant commissioner seats, leading to a regulatory void—effectively a "one-person commission." This situation limits its decision-making capacity, particularly regarding jurisdiction over prediction markets. The regulatory gap for crypto derivatives and prediction markets is unlikely to be filled soon. Separately, tax provisions related to cryptocurrencies are more likely to be enacted through omnibus legislation rather than as standalone bills.
Overall, industry insiders hold cautiously optimistic views, hoping that cross-party pragmatism can drive key legislation forward, with the goal of achieving substantive results by 2026. The progress of these issues will directly impact the regulatory environment and development trajectory of the U.S. crypto market.