The United States crypto policy has entered a pivotal second half, with key legislation and regulatory agencies facing severe tests. The CLARITY Act, a focal point for the industry, requires 60 votes in the Senate to pass, but it now confronts multiple challenges including a tight timeline, intensified bipartisan wrangling, and the departure of key figures. The pace and outcome of the bill will directly shape the regulatory framework for digital asset markets in the US.
Meanwhile, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) suffers from a regulatory vacuum due to vacant commissioner seats, creating a de facto "single-commissioner" committee. This structural issue significantly hampers the CFTC's enforcement and rulemaking capabilities in the digital asset space, especially as disputes over prediction market jurisdiction continue to escalate, leaving market participants uncertain about regulatory clarity. Furthermore, the path for crypto-related tax provisions is more likely to be implemented through being attached to other legislative packages rather than as standalone bills. The industry broadly looks forward to bipartisanship and pragmatic cooperation to achieve substantial policy outcomes by 2026.