U.S. crypto policy is entering a decisive second half. The CLARITY Act, a key legislative effort, must secure at least 60 bipartisan votes in the Senate to pass. However, a tight time window, partisan conflicts, and the departure of key figures are adding uncertainty to the bill's progress.
Meanwhile, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is operating with a single commissioner due to unfilled vacancies, creating a "one-person commission" that is hampering effective regulation. This situation has allowed jurisdiction disputes over prediction markets to persist, leaving market participants navigating an increasingly ambiguous regulatory landscape.
On the tax front, relevant provisions are more likely to be enacted as part of a broader legislative package rather than as standalone measures. Overall, the industry is pinning its hopes on bipartisan, pragmatic progress to achieve substantial policy outcomes by 2026.