In this sports season full of Cinderella stories, the crypto industry is also awaiting its own highlight moment — the CLARITY Act advancing in the U.S. Senate could be the key "comeback." But with two quarters left before the final whistle, securing 60 votes may require Republicans to reach a compromise with the White House on ethics issues while also persuading several wavering Republican senators.
For now, it's halftime — six months remain in the year, and anything is possible. Legislative victories and game scores are essentially no different; they require multiple factors to align precisely. Sometimes, burning a little sage for good luck doesn't hurt — just like the New York Knicks showed this year.
The second half of the policy year will be a critical period for bipartisan negotiations across both chambers of Congress. Zooming out, market structure legislation is only one piece of a larger playbook aimed at building a comprehensive policy and regulatory framework for Web3 and DeFi. The congressional calendar is already packed, with fewer than 40 legislative session days remaining — even counting the lame-duck session and midterm elections, the time available for maneuvering and adjusting the score is extremely tight.
Multiple Legislations Pending: Tax, BRCA, and GENUIS Rules
Beyond the CLARITY Act's prospects, can the multiple crypto tax proposals split from the new PARITY Act hitch a ride on larger legislative vehicles to become law this year? Could the core language of the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act deliver a "Hail Mary" pass to formally codify developer protections? Meanwhile, the full-court press around the GENUIS rulemaking continues, with key provisions still to be finalized. For crypto enthusiasts, it's like following a sports franchise through an entire season — a rich hand, constant suspense, exciting and nerve-wracking all at once.
CFTC ‘One-Person Commission’ and Prediction Market Jurisdiction Battle
The fact that a financial regulator is missing four commissioners is deeply concerning to the industry. For crypto, this directly impacts expectations of Washington action — whether new commissioners can be nominated and confirmed this year remains highly uncertain. More thorny is the question: who will win the battle for prediction market jurisdiction? The states? The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)? Or will the Supreme Court ultimately decide? The author stresses this is not an invitation to place bets.
Crypto Champions Headed for Retirement
Regardless of final policy outcomes, the remainder of the year will likely be bittersweet. Two heavyweight "crypto champions" are set to leave federal government positions, with short- and long-term implications: SEC Commissioner Hester M. Peirce and Senator Cynthia Lummis. Peirce, a two-time commissioner who leads the SEC's Crypto Task Force, has been a central architect of cross-regulatory coordination. Lummis, chair of the Senate Banking Committee's Digital Assets Subcommittee, has been a key bipartisan negotiator and staunch advocate for the BRCA.
Industry Leaders Weigh In: CLARITY, Taxes, and Prediction Markets
The author interviewed several seasoned industry leaders for their assessment of current crypto policy deliberations. Here are their views on CLARITY, taxes, and prediction markets:
Sara K. Weed (Partner, Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP) stated: "There's no denying we are moving steadily in the right direction. But given the shortage of legislative session days and election pressures, the likelihood of CLARITY passing this Congress is low. Consequently, agencies like the SEC and CFTC will be forced to play a more active role to provide the industry with much-needed certainty. The question, of course, is how far they can go under their existing authority."
Sulolit "Raj" Mukherjee (CEO, Bodin Advisory) commented: "If history is any guide, meaningful crypto tax legislation is most likely to pass not as a standalone bill but embedded in broader tax, budget, or year-end omnibus legislation. The current proposals are relatively focused, bipartisan, and aim to address specific issues like de minimis exemptions, staking tax treatment, wash sale rules, and information reporting requirements. Such provisions move more easily when attached to must-pass big bills. Whether they ultimately land depends on Congress's bandwidth, scoring dynamics, and whether lawmakers view crypto tax rules as technical fixes to improve compliance rather than part of a broader digital asset policy debate. The chance that at least one or two measures become law this year is real, but likely through a packaged vehicle rather than a standalone crypto tax bill."
Rashan Colbert (U.S. Policy Director, Crypto Council for Innovation) said: "I won't predict how the courts will resolve jurisdictional disputes, but the direction is clear: as prediction markets mature, the CFTC is working toward a more durable regulatory framework for them. The recent NPRM is another step toward providing greater transparency and legal certainty for market participants — a space where user numbers and trading volumes are growing rapidly. The core question is: should prediction markets primarily be treated as financial market infrastructure or broadly classified as gambling? I believe these markets have the potential to become sophisticated tools for expressing views, hedging risk, and simplifying access to derivatives tied to various events and assets. An overly broad gambling framework could kill that potential before the markets have a chance to develop into positive-sum financial infrastructure."
The second half of crypto policy has begun. The time window is narrow, but the window of opportunity remains open. The industry needs sustained cross-party communication and pragmatic action to achieve tangible results by 2026.