US July CPI in focus as September rate-hike odds ease; semiconductor earnings season nears its end

News Editor

2026-08-08 11:39:45

Markets head into the new week with inflation data back at the center of the Federal Reserve debate after a sharp repricing in rate expectations. Over the past week, signs that shipping could resume through the Strait of Hormuz helped push oil prices sharply lower. At the same time, weaker-than-expected US July nonfarm payrolls and downward revisions to the prior two months drove the market-implied probability of a September Fed rate hike down from about 55% to 44%. That shift coincided with the biggest weekly gains for the three major US stock indexes since mid-April, while spot gold climbed above $4,370 an ounce. The coming week now turns on US inflation readings, with July CPI and core CPI due Wednesday, followed by PPI on Thursday and retail sales plus the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data on Friday. Investors are also tracking the final stretch of the semiconductor earnings season and AI-linked names. Upcoming reports from Applied Materials, Cisco and CoreWeave are among the releases in focus. BlockBeats said market participants will keep watching remarks from Fed officials ahead of Jackson Hole, as internal divisions at the central bank remain and Chair Warsh has stayed silent.

BlockBeats reported on Aug. 8 that the market narrative shifted over the past week as oil prices fell sharply on signs that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could resume. At the same time, US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined and the previous two months were revised lower, pulling the market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September down from about 55% to 44%.

The repricing helped lift all three major US stock indexes to their biggest weekly gains since mid-April. Spot gold also jumped and moved above $4,370 per ounce.

Inflation data takes center stage next week

Attention is set to move from rate-hike positioning to inflation data. Wednesday's US July CPI and core CPI releases will be the key test of whether expectations for further tightening continue to cool. Thursday's PPI and Friday's retail sales data, together with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading, will add to that picture.

According to BlockBeats, divisions remain inside the Fed, while Chair Warsh has stayed silent. Ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting, the market will be watching comments from central bank officials and any signs tied to independence risk.

Semiconductor earnings season heads into its final stretch

The US semiconductor earnings season is gradually moving toward its close. The AI theme remains highly sensitive to upcoming results from Applied Materials (AMAT), Cisco (CSCO), and CoreWeave (CRWV).

Key events for the week ahead

Monday

The Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions from its July monetary policy meeting.

Tuesday

The US weekly change in ADP employment through the week of July 25 is due.

Wednesday

CoreWeave (CRWV) will hold its earnings call at 5:00 a.m. UTC+8, following the US market close on Tuesday. The US will also release July CPI, core CPI, and EIA crude oil inventories for the week through Aug. 7.

Thursday

Cisco (CSCO) will hold its earnings call at 4:30 a.m. UTC+8, after the US market close on Wednesday. The US will release initial jobless claims for the week through Aug. 8 and July PPI. Beth Hammack, a 2026 FOMC voter and president of the Cleveland Fed, is scheduled to speak. Thomas Barkin, a 2027 FOMC voter and president of the Richmond Fed, will also speak on the economic outlook.

Friday

Applied Materials (AMAT) will hold its earnings call at 4:30 a.m. UTC+8, after the US market close on Thursday. The US will release July retail sales month-over-month, the preliminary August University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, preliminary one-year inflation expectations, and June business inventories month-over-month.

This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan.

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