The US Senate heads into recess on August 7, leaving the CLARITY Act with a razor-thin window to pass before that date, according to Cryptopolitan. If senators fail to vote this week, the next realistic window doesn't open until September. Miss that, and the legislation could slip past the midterm elections, with enactment deferred to 2027 at the earliest. The key sticking point remains unchanged: Democrats insist on adding ethics rules that would restrict crypto-related employment for senior government officials, language the merged draft has yet to incorporate. In the vacuum between clarity and uncertainty, institutional heft is proving easier to sustain. ARK Invest increased its holdings in both Coinbase and Circle this week, and Circle received a federal national trust bank charter in July. Smaller crypto companies and DeFi projects continue to face mounting pressure. Polymarket now pegs the probability of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 at just 23%, a sharp drop from the 67%–75% forecast Galaxy Research published in mid-May.
The US Senate will enter its August recess on August 7, leaving the CLARITY Act an extremely narrow window to pass before lawmakers leave Washington. If a vote doesn't happen this week, the next viable opening slips to September, according to Cryptopolitan. Miss that, and the bill could drift past the midterm elections, with enactment not arriving until 2027.
The core dispute remains the same. Democrats want the bill to include ethics provisions restricting crypto-related employment for senior government officials. The merged draft currently circulated doesn't contain that language.
The regulatory vacuum is separating the prepared from the exposed. Coinbase and Circle can lean on capital strength while rules stay unsettled. ARK Invest added to its stakes in both companies this week, and Circle secured a federal national trust bank charter in July. Smaller crypto firms and DeFi projects, by contrast, continue to feel the strain.
On the market side, Polymarket data puts the probability of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 at 23%, a steep fall from the 67%–75% range Galaxy Research projected in mid-May.
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