Bitcoin is still deep in a bear market, but VanEck says the asset is doing something unusual for itself: staying relatively still.
In a new report, the firm said 30-day realized volatility fell to 27.2% annualized, down from 30.4% the previous month and less than half Bitcoin’s long-run average of roughly 80%. For an asset known for double-digit daily moves, that marks an unusually calm stretch.
The quieter trading period has come as Bitcoin recovered from a June low near $58,500. Through most of July, it held inside a tight $62,265-to-$66,509 range.
VanEck said Bitcoin remains about 9% below its 200-day moving average, a narrower gap than the 14% discount recorded a month earlier. Even so, it still sits roughly 49% below its all-time high.
Spot trading has also slowed
Trading activity points to the same pause. VanEck said spot volume over the trailing 30 days is down 27% from the prior month, placing it in just the 10th percentile of its own history.
According to the report, the summer slowdown is deeper than it was in either 2024 or 2025, with spot volume moving toward levels last seen during the 2023 bear market.
Long-term holders are starting to sell
VanEck also said longtime holders have begun letting go of coins. Bitcoin held for more than a year fell by about 356,000 BTC over the month, a 2.9% decline, pushing the long-term holder share of total supply below 60% for the first time in months.
The selling was concentrated in coins held for one to three years. By contrast, the oldest holders, those with coins held for more than a decade, barely changed their positions, declining just 0.1%.
Eight of 12 capitulation signals are flashing
As Bitcoin moves into a period historically tied to its four-year boom-and-bust cycle, VanEck said 8 of the 12 capitulation signals it tracks are currently flashing. The firm said that reading is consistent with the later stages of a drawdown.
Based on the duration of prior cycles, VanEck sees a bottom potentially forming between September and November this year. It also cautioned that the historical record after similar signal clusters is mixed, and only shows a clearer edge over a full one-year horizon.
For now, the Bitcoin story is less about direction than about the unusual stillness of a market that, by its own history, rarely stays this quiet for long.