Vaulted CEO says quantum computing could end Bitcoin within four years

News Editor

2026-08-02 06:00:36

Vaulted CEO David McAlvany said Bitcoin could disappear within the next four years because of advances in quantum computing, according to Forbes, though he also acknowledged he cannot say when such a breakthrough might actually arrive. He said Bitcoin would face an existential problem if quantum machines become capable of quickly solving the mathematical problems that protect private keys. As of mid-2026, however, no quantum computer exists that can break Bitcoin’s cryptography. The concern described in the report is tied to the pace of future quantum development rather than any security breach that has already happened. Estimates cited in the report show that a large share of BTC sits in addresses with exposed public keys: Galaxy Digital put the number at about 7 million BTC, worth roughly $470 billion, while Glassnode estimated 6.04 million BTC, or 30.2% of supply. The report also outlined an active debate over how Bitcoin should respond. BIP-360 would add quantum-resistant address types, while BIP-361 would phase out old signature support, a move that could permanently freeze coins that are not migrated in time. Supporters say that outcome would be preferable to theft and forced selling by quantum attackers, while critics see it as confiscation.

Vaulted CEO David McAlvany said Bitcoin could disappear within the next four years because of quantum computing, according to Forbes.

McAlvany said that once quantum computers can quickly solve the mathematical problems protecting Bitcoin private keys, “that will be the end of Bitcoin.” He later added that he cannot tell whether that breakthrough will arrive in four years, five years, or two months.

No quantum machine can break Bitcoin cryptography yet

As of mid-2026, there is still no quantum computer capable of breaking Bitcoin’s cryptographic system. The report said McAlvany’s view is driven by concern over the future pace of quantum computing development, not by any security incident that has already taken place.

Millions of BTC are tied to addresses with exposed public keys

Galaxy Digital estimated that addresses with exposed public keys hold about 7 million BTC, worth roughly $470 billion. Glassnode’s estimate was 6.04 million BTC, equal to 30.2% of Bitcoin’s supply.

An exposed public key does not mean the coins have already been stolen. The actual theft risk would arise only if a quantum computer becomes able to derive a private key from a public key.

Bitcoin developers are split on possible fixes

McAlvany also compared Bitcoin with gold and questioned whether Bitcoin can still exist 5,000 years from now. He said he is relatively confident that gold will still be around by then, while Bitcoin “may exist, or may not.”

Developers have not agreed on a single response. BIP-360 proposes adding quantum-resistant address types. BIP-361 would phase out support for legacy signatures in stages. Under that approach, assets that are not migrated in time could be permanently frozen, including Bitcoin widely believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto.

Supporters argue that freezing coins would be better than letting quantum attackers steal and sell them. Critics describe that approach as confiscation.

Companies are also building cross-chain quantum-resistant tools

BOLTS Technologies and American Fortress are among the companies working on cross-chain quantum-resistant solutions. American Fortress raised $8 million in seed funding in May and said its technology can protect assets without requiring users to migrate addresses. Its technical paper has not been published, however, and the design has not undergone a public audit.

This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan.

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