Global equity markets have entered a volatile stretch, with elevated U.S. Treasury yields putting direct pressure on high-P/E technology growth stocks. At the same time, ABMedia said U.S. Treasury bond buyback measures have weighed on the dollar. With tech under pressure and the greenback softer, capital is shifting and the so-called debasement trade is back in focus.
The debasement trade returns to the spotlight
ABMedia described the logic of the debasement trade in simple terms: when markets expect a single currency such as the U.S. dollar to keep weakening, money tends to move into assets viewed as stores of value, inflation hedges, or alternative financial assets. The report said the recent rallies in gold and Bitcoin are among the clearest signs that this trade has picked up again.
It noted that gold rose 5% in a week, with debasement-trade demand helping push the metal above $4,600. Bitcoin was presented as another primary destination for that shift in capital.
Standard Chartered says $100,000 BTC target may be too low
ABMedia cited Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick as saying Bitcoin has surged from 64K to near $80,000, marking its best weekly performance in years. The move, according to the report, triggered heavy short covering and pushed BTC above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages.
Kendrick said the rally may still have room to reinforce itself. He pointed to the largest amount of short covering since 2021 and weekly inflows of more than $1 billion into spot Bitcoin ETFs. In his view, stronger prices could attract more capital and pull leveraged traders back into the market.
He wrote in a report: 「For the first time this year, my year-end forecast ($100,000) faces the risk of being too low. Once investors realize how fast the price is rising, and once we pass Oct. 6 (12 months after the all-time high), the price could break above the all-time high ($126,000) before year-end.」
The article also laid out the feedback loop it is watching: rising prices force shorts to cover, which draws more money into spot ETFs; that, in turn, lifts crypto-related stocks and digital asset managers; those companies gain more financing capacity and can buy more Bitcoin; higher prices then bring sidelined investors back, creating another wave of demand.
Gold nears a three-month high as both on-chain and traditional products draw interest
With the dollar weakening, gold has climbed to its highest level in nearly three months, the report said. It then broke down several ways investors can gain exposure.
Tokenized gold: XAUT and PAXG
ABMedia highlighted Tether’s XAUT and Paxos-issued PAXG as on-chain tokenized gold products whose prices are directly linked to gold. The report said these products offer an alternative route into gold exposure without ETF management fees or the storage and transport costs tied to physical bars. They are available for direct purchase on major crypto exchanges and in DeFi markets.
Gold ETFs
In traditional finance, gold ETFs remain the mainstream option. The article named GLD, the SPDR Gold ETF that directly holds physical gold to track international prices, along with 00635 and the leveraged gold product 00708L issued by Taiwan brokers.
Taiwan stocks linked to gold prices
The report also pointed to Taiwan-listed names with share prices that tend to move with gold, including Chia Herng (9955) and Jin Yi Ding (8390). It said such stocks can draw buying interest more easily when gold rises and capital rotates into materials.
Oil, petrochemicals, steel, and copper also on the watch list
Gold is not the only area flagged in the report. ABMedia also pointed to crude oil and base metals as part of the same rotation. Higher international oil prices have turned traditional petrochemical shares into a relative shelter for capital, it said.
Moore Securities Investment Consulting analyst Lin Han-Wei named Taiwan Plastics, Taiya, Nan Ya, Formosa Chemicals & Fibre, and Formosa Petrochemical as key stocks to watch within the Formosa Plastics Group during this rotation.
The report also said steel and base-metals names could benefit. In addition to sector heavyweight China Steel, it listed Chang Yuen, Da Cheng Steel, Shin Guang Steel, Tung Ho Steel, and First Copper, which it said is highly correlated with copper prices, for investors looking at smaller-cap and more active names.
ABMedia sees support below and resistance above for Taiwan equities
On the broader Taiwan market, ABMedia said the lack of strong buying in technology shares and the absence of a clear pickup in turnover mean money is moving to places where it can work more efficiently. A weaker dollar and a stronger Taiwan dollar may drive foreign investors to buy back into local equities passively, but the report said those flows are more likely to favor financial shares or high-dividend ETFs than large-cap electronics names.
Under that setup, the article said Taiwan’s benchmark index may remain range-bound, with support on the downside and pressure on the upside. Materials and traditional industries, including shipping stocks benefiting from higher freight rates, are expected to remain central in near-term sector rotation.