On-Chain Loss Signal Extends: Realized Net Profit/Loss Negative for Fifth Straight Month
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. reports that Bitcoin's realized net profit/loss (90-day moving average) has remained negative for five consecutive months, currently at approximately -$203.2 million. This metric captures the net aggregate profit or loss from coins spent on-chain, and sustained negativity implies the market is systematically locking in losses — a classic early-stage bear market pattern.
Cost-Basis Breakdown by Cohort: Short-Term Holders Fuel the Selling Pressure
Segmenting each group's average cost basis reveals the structural source of current loss-taking. Data shows: whale addresses holding 10,000+ BTC have an average cost of $48,100; small addresses with 10-100 BTC average $47,800; large wallets (1,000-10,000 BTC) average $56,500 — all three groups remain above the current market price, sitting on unrealized gains. In contrast, the cohort holding 100-1,000 BTC carries an average cost of $65,700, making it the only cohort in loss and the primary driver of current capitulation selling.
Contrast with 2022 Full Surrender: Controlled Decline with Key Support at $48,000-$56,000
Adler emphasizes that today's on-chain structure differs markedly from the full-scale capitulation seen after the FTX collapse in November 2022, when virtually all holder groups fell below their cost bases. Currently, only one cohort is underwater, indicating a controlled decline rather than panic selling. The report identifies the $48,000-$56,000 band as the critical support zone, corresponding to the cost density of whales and other unharmed groups. If this range is decisively breached, more holders would be pushed into loss, opening the door to a deeper correction — and potentially triggering a true broad-based surrender phase.