William Blair lowered its revenue estimates for Coinbase for both 2026 and 2027 while keeping an outperform rating on the crypto exchange. The firm cut its 2026 revenue forecast by 12% and its 2027 forecast by 13%. It also reduced adjusted EBITDA estimates for both years by 34%.
The brokerage said Coinbase’s total trading volume this year is expected to fall about 44% to $669 billion, before rebounding by more than 32% in 2027. William Blair also said it expects Coinbase’s earnings to bottom in the second half of 2026 and recover in 2027.
In the market, Coinbase and Circle shares both rose about 3% to 4% on Wednesday. Even so, Coinbase shares are down nearly 30% year to date, compared with a roughly 26% decline in bitcoin over the same period. Circle has fallen about 20% since January. Separately, technical analyst John Bollinger said bitcoin’s daily chart is showing a "W" double-bottom pattern. Glassnode’s latest weekly analysis said the long-term holder capitulation indicator has retreated after peaking for this cycle two weeks ago.
William Blair lowered its financial forecasts for Coinbase for 2026 and 2027, while maintaining an outperform rating on the company.
The firm cut its 2026 revenue estimate by 12% and its 2027 revenue estimate by 13%. It also lowered adjusted EBITDA forecasts for both years by 34%.
Trading volume seen falling this year, then recovering
William Blair said Coinbase’s total trading volume is expected to decline about 44% this year to $669 billion. It expects volume to rebound by more than 32% in 2027.
The firm also said Coinbase’s earnings should bottom in the second half of 2026 and recover in 2027.
Shares rise on Wednesday
Coinbase and Circle shares both gained about 3% to 4% on Wednesday. Despite that move, Coinbase is down nearly 30% this year, while bitcoin has fallen about 26% over the same period. Circle is down about 20% since January.
Separately, technical analyst John Bollinger said bitcoin’s daily chart has formed a "W" double-bottom pattern. If the pattern is completed, he said it would be treated as confirmation of a trend change. Glassnode said in its latest weekly analysis that the long-term holder capitulation indicator has pulled back after reaching a cycle peak two weeks ago.
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