According to ChainCatcher, Wintermute released its latest weekly market report covering the week ending June 15. The report said that two positive factors — the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and CPI data — helped restore market risk appetite. Within that setting, Wintermute viewed Bitcoin’s risk-reward profile in the low-$60,000 range as attractive, while stressing that this should not be treated as confirmation that a market bottom has already been established.
Wintermute wrote that each round of heavy selling removes less committed holders from the market and leaves behind a group with higher-quality holdings and stronger conviction. In its view, such selloffs can improve the composition of market participants by clearing out weaker hands. However, the firm separated this structural improvement from a definitive bottom call. Before conditions truly improve, a move into the $50,000 range has not been ruled out by the report.
The report also said that positioning has already been partially cleaned up and that net selling pressure has eased. Even so, Wintermute argued that the more important variable is capital flow, rather than short-term price action or news headlines. It pointed to the previous cycle, where the real turning point came from sustained growth in ETF and stablecoin inflows. Wintermute said that this type of signal has not appeared at present, and therefore blindly chasing any single rally does not help.
For the near term, Wintermute identified Wosh’s speech on Wednesday as a key event. The report said that if a dovish tone is linked to softer core rates and lower oil prices, the market will receive a positive signal. If a hawkish tone is linked to rates rising to 4.2%, the positive backdrop would come to an end. Beyond that, Wintermute said the agreement signed by the United States and Iran in Switzerland on Friday is the truly important event.