Odaily reported that Bernstein said Robinhood is set to receive a “strong tailwind” as prediction market trading volumes reached new highs during the FIFA World Cup. According to the data cited in the report, daily prediction market volume in the early stage of the tournament rose from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high. That figure has already surpassed the $1.4 billion trading scale recorded during the previous Super Bowl.
Prediction markets become one of Robinhood’s fastest-growing revenue lines
Bernstein analysts said prediction markets have become one of Robinhood’s fastest-growing product lines since launch. The firm expects Robinhood’s prediction market revenue to increase from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing year-over-year growth of about 286%. Based on Bernstein’s estimate, the business is expected to account for 17% of Robinhood’s transaction-related revenue and 10% of its total revenue in 2026.
Bernstein also identified Robinhood’s partnership with Rothera, an exchange and clearing organization regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as one of its competitive advantages. Since going live on May 28, Rothera has traded about 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of that volume.
Distribution, low commissions and Gold discounts support user participation
According to Bernstein analysts, Robinhood’s core strength lies in its distribution capability. The firm pointed to Robinhood’s large user base, its $0.01 commission per contract, and fee discounts of up to 50% for Gold members as factors that help encourage user participation in prediction market trading. The World Cup has become an important trading scenario for the product as sports-related contracts drive heavy activity.
Bernstein added that competition in the prediction market sector is expanding. Polymarket has launched event contracts tied to private companies, while Kalshi has introduced cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm expects the World Cup to bring more than $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and to increase consumer trading volume across the entire industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. The report was cited from The Block.