X-Spot Research said Bitcoin is completing a shift from policy-driven trading to fundamentals-driven pricing, with the cryptocurrency recently climbing steadily and holding support near $65,000.
The institute said this phase looks different from the 2024 rally, which it described as being led largely by policy expectations. In its view, the current move is being supported by an internal improvement in market structure, as investors are reacting less sharply to short-term noise and continuing to validate a longer-term allocation case for crypto assets.
Macro backdrop seen as more favorable
According to the report, U.S. inflation has remained under control, the labor market has shown weakness, and expectations for further rate hikes have declined. That has eased liquidity-tightening pressure and lowered overall financing costs for risk assets.
X-Spot Research said those changes have created a friendlier macro environment for Bitcoin. With the Federal Reserve’s policy path becoming clearer, the report said Bitcoin is regaining appeal as an alternative asset in macro allocation decisions.
CLARITY Act delays failed to shake the market
The report said the CLARITY Act has been delayed several times and that the probability of it passing this year has fallen to about 20%. Even so, the market did not see obvious panic selling, with Bitcoin staying stable around $65,000.
In X-Spot Research’s assessment, that shows investors are now treating regulatory progress as a medium- to long-term variable rather than a short-term price trigger. The report contrasted that with the pattern seen from 2023 through the first half of 2024, when regulatory headlines had a much larger influence on price action.
Strategy sales had a fading price impact
X-Spot Research said Strategy’s first sale of 32 BTC on June 1 this year was followed by a nearly 20% price decline over several days. It added that three later sales of larger size produced little comparable market reaction, suggesting that Bitcoin’s sensitivity to those disposals has fallen each time.
The report also said Strategy has recently completed its cash-flow adjustment, reducing the need for continued selling. As a result, the market now appears to treat that kind of position adjustment as expected rebalancing rather than as a systemic risk event.
Bitcoin held up through an AI stock pullback
The report said a broader retreat in AI-related technology stocks in July did not weigh on Bitcoin. X-Spot Research took that as a sign that the capital still active in Bitcoin is more oriented toward medium- and long-term holding.
It added that, since August, rising uncertainty around the AI narrative has increased the chance that some funds leaving that crowded trade could rotate back into Bitcoin. From a flow perspective, the institute said Bitcoin is beginning to separate itself from an AI-led rotation pattern across risk assets and develop its own safe-haven narrative.
Technical and flow signals point to healthier positioning
On the technical side, the report said weekly support at $63,500 remains effective. It also pointed to narrowing ETF net outflows and a contracting Coinbase discount.
According to X-Spot Research, the drivers of volatility are shifting away from swings in sentiment and toward fundamentals and liquidity conditions. It said multiple technical indicators suggest the market is moving toward a healthier holder structure.
Bitwise CIO view cited in allocation debate
The report also referenced comments made by Bitwise’s chief investment officer on a recent podcast. In that view, global equities are worth about $110 trillion, while crypto assets are valued at about $2.5 trillion, implying that a neutral portfolio weight should be close to 2%.
X-Spot Research said that, under this framework, holding no crypto exposure is not a neutral stance but an active bearish one. It added that the idea is drawing attention from a growing number of institutional investors.
Overall, the report said the delay of the CLARITY Act did not disrupt Bitcoin’s price rhythm, Strategy’s continued selling did not push the market to fresh lows, and the pullback in AI shares did not pull Bitcoin down. In its reading, that is a sign that the capital structure behind the market has become calmer, with shorter-term speculative money gradually leaving and stronger long-term holders remaining.