According to Hyperinsight, an address linked to prediction-market trader "xm39" fully closed an 82,700-contract long position in crude oil (CL) on Hyperliquid on the evening of July 31. The trades were executed at an average exit price of $83.52, with turnover of about $6.904 million and realized profit of roughly $97,000.
The address then stayed flat in crude for two days. That exit came about one day before signs of easing geopolitical tensions appeared. Trump later said he had called off a previously planned strike on Iran and wanted to resume talks on issues including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. After that message hit the market, WTI crude briefly dropped more than 9% to $80 in Asian trading, the lowest level in three weeks.
Using the already closed 82,700-contract position and comparing the exit price with the later market price, the move spared the trader about $317,000 in additional paper drawdown, based on a simple calculation cited in the report.
Not long after the related news became public, xm39 rebuilt the crude long. Around midday on Sunday, the trader bought 38,400 contracts at an average price of $81.08. During continued weakness in oil prices this morning, the address added another 86,700 contracts at an average of $79.93.
As of publication, the address was holding a 20x cross-margin long of 125,100 crude contracts, with position value of about $9.97 million. The blended entry price stood at $80.28, with an unrealized loss of about $75,000, or -15.0%. The liquidation price was $78.12, only about $1.56 away from the current price.
At the same time, a Polymarket wallet controlled by the same entity added again this morning to a "Yes" position on the contract "the U.S. will invade Iran before 2027." The wallet bought 38,000 shares at an average price of $0.20, investing about $7,600. That related wager has now risen to 937,700 shares, with a total cost of about $254,700. At the current quoted price of $0.205, the position was valued at about $192,200, implying an unrealized loss of roughly $62,500, or about 24.5%.
BlockBeats said that by exiting before the oil plunge and then going long again after the easing headline, xm39 does not appear to have fully accepted the current de-escalation narrative. The report also noted that while the trader's entries and exits have repeatedly lined up with macro headlines, the overall record has not produced outsized profits.
An earlier report said xm39 had increased a war-expectation wager to 900,000 shares and opened a $3.2 million Nasdaq position.