TradingBeats, formerly Hyperinsight, said on Aug. 13 that trader xm39 has expanded a set of geopolitical trades into a much larger book across Hyperliquid, WTI crude, and Polymarket. At the time of publication, xm39 was holding a 30x full-margin short of 280.3 XYZ100 contracts on Hyperliquid with a position value of about $8.339 million, an average entry of 29,730.4 points, and a liquidation price of 32,160.9 points. The same trader also held a roughly $3.029 million long in WTI crude, bringing the combined position size to about $11.368 million. TradingBeats said xm39 has also placed four crude buy orders between $79.22 and $80.29 to add 32,300 WTI units with notional value of about $2.566 million. On the equity index short, three buy orders are set as take-profit orders at 29,921, 29,963, and 30,064 points, covering 120 XYZ100 contracts worth about $3.599 million, or around 42.8% of the current short. On Polymarket, the trader’s latest activity came on Aug. 11, when xm39 added about 124,400 Yes shares in the market on whether the U.S. will invade Iran before 2027, spending about $21,100 across 59 fills at an average price of 16.95 cents.

TradingBeats data shows Polymarket trader xm39 remains committed to a "Yes" position on the contract asking whether the United States will invade Iran before 2027, even as the trade is deeply underwater. The position has grown to 1.0992 million shares with a total cost of about $286,200 and an average entry price of 26.03 cents. With the contract trading at 15.5 cents, the position is now worth roughly $170,400, leaving an unrealized loss of about $115,800, or 40.47%. Since BlockBeats last tracked the wallet on Aug. 3, xm39 added around 161,500 shares and put in another $31,500, while the unrealized loss expanded by about $53,300. No new prediction-market trades were seen today. At the same time, the trader reopened a large WTI crude oil long on Hyperliquid. By noon, xm39 had bought 88,000 CL contracts across 873 fills for about $6.9127 million at $78.54. At publication, the position was held at 20x cross margin, showing an unrealized profit of about $15,700, a return of about 4.53%, and a liquidation price of $75.75. The wallet also added to a short in XYZ100, bringing the combined notional value of the two derivatives positions to about $9.3259 million.

Hyperinsight data shows that prediction-market trader "xm39" closed out 82,700 crude oil (CL) longs on Hyperliquid on July 31 at an average exit price of $83.52, booking about $97,000 in profit on roughly $6.904 million in turnover. The address then stayed out of crude for two days, a timing that came about one day before signs of easing geopolitical tensions emerged. After Trump said he had halted a planned strike on Iran and wanted to resume talks on issues including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, WTI crude briefly fell more than 9% to $80 during Asian trading, a three-week low. Based on the earlier exit, the trader avoided about $317,000 in additional mark-to-market drawdown. Not long after the news, xm39 rebuilt the long position in two steps, first buying 38,400 contracts at an average of $81.08 and later adding 86,700 at $79.93. At publication, the address held a 20x cross-margin long of 125,100 crude contracts worth about $9.97 million, with a blended entry of $80.28, an unrealized loss of about $75,000, and a liquidation price of $78.12. A Polymarket wallet controlled by the same entity also added to a "Yes" bet that the U.S. will invade Iran before 2027.