According to TradingBeats, formerly Hyperinsight, Polymarket trader xm39 is still under pressure on a "Yes" bet tied to the contract on whether the United States will invade Iran before 2027. The position has now increased to 1.0992 million shares, with a total cost of about $286,200 and an average entry price of 26.03 cents.
The contract is currently priced at 15.5 cents. That puts the position value at about $170,400, for an unrealized loss of roughly $115,800, or 40.47%. Compared with the last tracking update on Aug. 3, xm39 added about 161,500 shares and deployed another roughly $31,500, while the unrealized loss widened by about $53,300. No new prediction-market trades had appeared today at the time of writing.
WTI crude long rebuilt in the morning
At the same time, xm39 rebuilt a crude oil long earlier in the day. By noon, the trader had bought a cumulative 88,000 WTI crude oil CL contracts through 873 executions, with total turnover of about $6.9127 million at a traded price of $78.54.
As of publication, the address was holding the position on 20x cross margin, showing an unrealized profit of about $15,700, a return of about 4.53%, and a liquidation price of $75.75.
XYZ100 short added at nearly the same time
Almost at the same time it started buying crude, xm39 also opened an additional short of 24.31 XYZ100 at an average price of 29,729.68, with turnover of about $722,700.
The trader now holds a total short position of 80.28 XYZ100. The position is valued at about $2.3976 million, with an average entry of 29,654.27, an unrealized loss of about $16,900, and a liquidation price of 32,984.70.
The two positions now carry a combined notional value of about $9.3259 million. Their unrealized profit and unrealized loss have largely offset each other, leaving a combined net unrealized loss of about $1,258. The wallet also has a reduce-only buy order for 20 XYZ100 at 29,388, representing a notional amount of about $587,800 and intended to trim about 24.9% of the existing short.
Directional view and prior record
At present, xm39 continues to bet on U.S. military action against Iran on Polymarket, while going long crude oil and short a Nasdaq-linked contract on Hyperliquid. Both positions point to the same macro direction: an escalation of conflict, stronger oil prices, and pressure on risk assets.
TradingBeats data also shows that among 65 closed Polymarket positions tied to this trader, none were in markets related to the U.S. and Iran, Iran alone, or the Strait of Hormuz. In crude oil trading, the trader has gone 4 wins and 1 loss across five long attempts, an 80% win rate. The only short trade posted a profit of about $17,200.
BlockBeats previously reported that xm39 fully exited in time to avoid a sharp drop in crude oil, then rebuilt a $10 million crude long after news that fighting had stopped. TradingBeats said its on-chain perpetuals and address analytics tool is now live, supporting real-time Hyperliquid data and address-level tracking of whale activity.