The Global Risk Institute (GRI) estimates the probability of a quantum computer capable of breaking current encryption at 28% to 49% within the next 10 years, rising to 51% to 70% over 15 years. Speaking at the 11th WHATs NEXT Quantum Technology Summit, XREX co-founder and group CEO Wayne Huang said the threat from quantum technology is greater for the broader financial industry than for blockchain-based cryptocurrencies. He said regulated financial institutions can migrate on a supervisory timetable, while any Bitcoin upgrade would first need community consensus.
This article was provided by XREX as a press release.
Quantum risk is no longer a distant scenario for finance
As quantum computing advances, the financial sector is beginning to treat the issue as an operational risk rather than a theoretical one. According to the latest GRI survey, the odds of a quantum computer breaking today’s encryption standards are 28% to 49% within 10 years and 51% to 70% within 15 years.
Huang said that if current encryption and digital signature mechanisms are broken, the impact would reach far beyond Bitcoin (BTC) on public blockchains. Bank accounts, securities transactions, messages, and historical transaction records could all be exposed.
The image shows attendees at the “Trust Forum” of the 11th WHATs NEXT Quantum Technology Summit. Image source: XREX Group.
Migration in finance could take years
Huang said current quantum computers still cannot break the mainstream cryptography used in banking systems, but replacing cryptography is not like updating software on a phone.
Banks would need to review account authentication, transaction signing, data transmission, and interfaces with external vendors, then test and switch systems in stages. That process could take years. During that same period, quantum computing would keep advancing. Attackers could also intercept encrypted data today and decrypt it later once quantum systems mature, a threat commonly described as Harvest Now, Decrypt Later, or HNDL.
The article says Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission issued its Reference Guidelines for Post-Quantum Cryptography Migration in the Financial Industry in June 2026, requiring financial institutions to address both “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later” and “trust now, forge later” risks.
The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has also released standards for post-quantum cryptography, or PQC. Those standards are designed to run on existing computers while resisting future attacks from quantum machines.
In Huang’s view, once both finance and blockchain need to “change the locks,” the real challenge is not just the cryptography itself. It is getting the full system upgraded in step.
Huang: the threat is larger for finance than for crypto
Huang said quantum technology poses a greater threat to the financial industry than to blockchain-based cryptocurrencies, both in terms of scale and level of adoption.
He compared encryption in today’s financial and internet systems to locks and seals in the digital world. The lock keeps data private. The seal confirms the source of an instruction and the integrity of its contents. If quantum computers can open those locks and forge those seals, the damage would extend well beyond login credentials. Bank accounts, securities trading, digital signatures, messages, and historical transaction data could all lose their protection, weakening trust in the financial system itself.
Huang pointed to the Year 2000 problem, or Y2K, as a historical comparison. Governments and companies spent years checking and fixing legacy systems before the date change, which helped most systems pass through the transition without major disruption. He said post-quantum migration demands the same kind of early preparation rather than a last-minute response.
Wayne Huang said at the summit that quantum technology poses a bigger threat to the broader financial industry than to blockchain-based cryptocurrencies. Image source: XREX Group.
Fiat money and Bitcoin rely on different forms of trust
Huang said the trust behind fiat currency comes from state issuance and recognition. Its value does not rest only on banknotes or payment technology, but also on the power structure formed by governments, central banks, legal systems, and financial institutions.
He cited the replacement of the old Taiwan dollar by the new Taiwan dollar, and said the U.S. dollar’s international standing is tied to the postwar Bretton Woods system and U.S. national power.
Bitcoin works differently. No government or company can directly order a change, and no single institution can declare a new rule set effective on its own. The network relies on participants distributed across different places to verify transactions, maintain the ledger, and run the network under a shared set of rules. As long as most major participants continue to accept those rules, the system keeps working.
Huang said blockchain, as a consensus technology, derives its survival value from trust and can even resemble religious belief to some extent. He used Buddhism as an analogy, saying that even without a single organization managing everything, local traditions can still coexist within the same system. In the same way, blockchain can operate over the long term without a central institution, as long as participants keep following shared rules.
By his account, the difference between fiat currency and blockchain is not just whether there is an issuer. It is also where trust comes from. Fiat depends on the state and institutions; blockchain depends on common rules and the continued acceptance of those rules by participants.
Regulated institutions follow timelines; Bitcoin needs consensus first
Because those trust structures differ, the upgrade path is different too. Huang said regulated financial institutions can inventory systems, test new technologies, and switch over gradually under a supervisory schedule. Bitcoin has no regulator that can require a synchronized global update. Any rule change would have to be accepted by miners, nodes, developers, exchanges, and users first.
The article notes that the Bitcoin community has previously updated rules through soft forks while trying to remain compatible with older versions. Huang said that if Bitcoin is to gain resistance against quantum attacks in the future, the key issue will still be whether the community can reach enough consensus.
He also said stablecoins sit at the intersection of the two systems. They circulate on blockchains, but their prices are usually linked to fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar. That means they use blockchain technology while also operating under financial regulation. Huang said stablecoin issuers may receive upgrade requirements earlier, adopt new cryptographic techniques first, and build practical experience for more decentralized parts of the ecosystem.
Lin Yu-tai, director-general of the Information Service Department at Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission, said during the forum that the FSC has started planning post-quantum cryptography migration for the financial industry. He said the regulator will expand cooperation with financial institutions, ICT vendors, and other industries to build cybersecurity resilience for the quantum era. For both finance and blockchain, the issue is not only when the quantum threat arrives, but whether rules, systems, and industry coordination can be upgraded before existing trust mechanisms are broken.
About XREX Group
Founded in 2018, XREX Group describes itself as an international financial institution with blockchain technology and says it works closely with banks, governments, and users.
According to the article, XREX Group’s Taiwan subsidiary, Chain Technology Co., operates the XREX exchange. It completed an anti-money laundering compliance declaration with Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission in March 2022, and on Sept. 22, 2025, completed the FSC’s anti-money laundering registration, becoming one of eight compliant virtual asset service providers listed as having completed the process. Its Singapore subsidiary obtained a Major Payment Institution, or MPI, license from the Monetary Authority of Singapore in May 2024.
XREX Group said it treats financial inclusion as a social responsibility and continues to use blockchain technology to expand financial participation, access to financial services, and financial education. It also offers structured blockchain and virtual asset education through XREX Academy.
Two questions highlighted in the article
What is Harvest Now, Decrypt Later?
It refers to attackers intercepting and storing encrypted data today, then decrypting it once quantum computers become capable enough in the future. That means sensitive data transmitted now could lose protection years later, even if current encryption has not yet been broken.
Why would it be harder for Bitcoin than for banks to gain quantum resistance?
The article’s answer is that regulated financial institutions can migrate under an official timetable and switch systems step by step. Bitcoin has no authority that can require the whole network to update at once, so miners, nodes, developers, exchanges, and users would first need to agree on new rules.