XRP fell from around $1.07 to $1.01 between June 25 and June 26, extending its year-to-date loss to over 40%. The decline accelerated after a $10.8 billion crypto options expiry triggered heavy volatility and forced a wave of long liquidations. Sentiment worsened when DeFi protocol Strobe Finance abruptly announced its closure. Macro pressure also mounted as expectations of prolonged high U.S. interest rates pushed investors to reduce risk exposure, while Bitcoin’s slide below $60,000 removed support for altcoins.
Falling Wedge Nears End, MACD and RSI Signal Oversold Conditions
On the daily chart, XRP has been contained within a falling wedge for nearly a year, now testing the lower boundary near $1.00. The MACD remains below its signal line with negative histogram bars, and the Aroon indicator shows Aroon Down near 100 while Aroon Up stays subdued, suggesting bears control the short-term trend. On the 4-hour chart, XRP has retraced nearly all of the Fibonacci advance and trades just above the 100% retracement at $1.01. Supertrend resistance sits at $1.10, while the RSI slipped to around 31, approaching oversold territory without confirming a bullish reversal.
Liquidation Heatmap Shows Heavy Leverage Clusters Between $1.05 and $1.08
CoinGlass liquidation heatmap data reveals large concentrations of leveraged positions between $1.05 and $1.08, with another liquidity pocket near $1.02. These zones could attract price action in either direction as traders compete for liquidity. On-chain data from analyst Ali Martinez shows that UTXO Realized Price Distribution identifies $1.06 as a major accumulation level where over 830 million XRP previously changed hands. “If the market drops below this level, the next core support targets are $0.80, $0.62 and $0.51,” Martinez warned.
Analysts Warn of Downside Risks Below $1, Recovery Hinges on $1.10 Break
Crypto analyst ChartNerd noted that XRP has entered an area of interest after weeks of decline, but losing current support would shift attention to the $0.90-$0.70 range, where previous buying was concentrated. Additional institutional outflows from crypto products, another round of heavy derivatives liquidations, or stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data reinforcing Fed tightening expectations could extend pressure. Conversely, reclaiming $1.10 and breaking above the falling wedge resistance would be the first technical signal that buyers are regaining control.