XRP Still Trails Its 2018 Peak as Supply Growth, Soft Fund Flows Weigh on Demand

XRP Still Trails Its 2018 Peak as Supply Growth, Soft Fund Flows Weigh on Demand

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News Editor
2026-10-16 05:53:58
XRP is still trading around $1.33, roughly 62.5% below its January 2018 high of $3.55, even as bitcoin, ether and several other major cryptocurrencies remain above their prior cycle peaks. CoinDesk’s report points to a mix of structural and market-driven reasons for the gap: XRP’s circulating supply has expanded 63% since 2017, spot and perpetual trading volumes have fallen, active addresses are lower, and investor inflows into XRP-linked funds remain modest compared with bitcoin and ether products. Analysts quoted in the report also said Ripple’s focus on cross-border payments, RLUSD and trade finance has left XRP with less exposure to capital-heavy narratives such as DeFi, AI and memecoins. The token also spent years under a cloud of regulatory uncertainty tied to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s case against Ripple, which began in 2020 and ended in August 2025 after both sides dropped their appeals. While XRP is not the only large-cap token still below early 2018 levels, analysts said its relative weakness versus bitcoin, combined with supply distribution trends and fund-holding changes, remains a key signal to watch.

XRP has not rewarded long-term holders the way bitcoin and ether have.

The payments-focused token, native to the XRP Ledger and ranked by CoinDesk as the world’s fifth-largest digital asset by market value, is trading around $1.33. That leaves it about 62.5% below its early January 2018 peak of $3.55, while bitcoin, ether and several other major cryptocurrencies have moved beyond their previous cycle highs.

According to CoinDesk, most major tokens have pulled back sharply from their 2025 tops but still sit well above their 2017 highs. XRP is the exception among the biggest names discussed in the report. CoinDesk noted that the token briefly exceeded its old peak when it reached $3.66 in July 2025 before falling back.

That means a buyer who entered at the January 2018 peak would still be under water nearly nine years later.

How XRP compares with other major tokens

CoinDesk said bitcoin is up 314% from its December 2017 peak of $19,804. Dogecoin is up 322% from its January 2018 high, BNB is up about 2,800%, ether is up 66%, and zcash (ZEC) is up 38%. Tron remains slightly below its peak, down about 4%, while Solana launched in 2020.

Set against that group, XRP stands out as a large-cap token that has not established a clear higher high across cycles.

Analysts point first to circulating supply

Nicolai Sondergaard, senior research analyst at analytics firm Nansen, told CoinDesk that one reason for XRP’s weaker price performance is the rise in supply.

"Circulating supply grew 63%, from 38.7B in 2017 to 63.1B, while XRP's total market value fell only about 3%," Sondergaard said. "More XRP in circulation means each token represents a smaller share of roughly the same total value."

In other words, as the number of coins available on the market increases, each token accounts for a smaller slice of the aggregate value if the overall market capitalization does not rise at the same pace.

Oliver Carding, head of marketing at Tesseract Group, told CoinDesk that XRP looks stronger when measured by value rather than by token price alone.

"On value, XRP recovered," he said. "About 63% more XRP is in circulation than at that peak, so the same circulating market capitalization would mean a price roughly 39% lower."

CoinDesk described Tesseract as an institutional digital asset management firm with more than $500 million in assets under management.

ETF adoption has been weak, and activity has slowed

U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds have given institutional investors a route into digital assets. But while bitcoin and ether funds have attracted billions of dollars, XRP-related products have lagged.

"ETF uptake has also been muted relative to $BTC and $ETH," Paul Howard, senior director at market-making firm Wincent, told CoinDesk.

Using SoSoValue data, the report said XRP funds have taken in just $1.80 billion since debuting nearly a year ago. By contrast, bitcoin ETFs can pull in more than $1 billion in a single day.

Nansen data cited by CoinDesk also showed weaker market and network activity: XRP spot volume fell 53.5%, perpetual futures volume dropped 44%, and active addresses declined 10.7%.

Ripple has prioritized payments over hotter crypto sectors

Another factor in the report is Ripple’s business focus. Rather than chasing segments such as DeFi, AI and memecoins, which have drawn larger capital inflows and deeper ties to traditional finance, Ripple has stayed centered on cross-border payments.

Howard said Ripple has been building payment infrastructure, RLUSD and trade finance products around the ledger and the coin, which has shifted attention away from XRP itself.

"Ripple, meanwhile, has been working hard to build payment infrastructure, RLUSD and trade financing products around the usage of the ledger and coin, and this has taken focus from just core XRP," Howard said.

He added that investors now have more alternatives.

"The role of DeFi for investment into ETH, SOL and HYPE has also been a new narrative which $XRP has not focused on," Howard said.

Years of SEC litigation also weighed on XRP

CoinDesk said Ripple’s legal fight with U.S. regulators was another major drag.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued Ripple and two executives in December 2020, alleging that the company raised about $1.3 billion by selling XRP without registering it as a security.

In 2023, a federal judge ruled that XRP sales on public exchanges were not securities offerings, while sales to institutional investors were. In 2024, Ripple was ordered to pay a $125 million penalty. The case ended in August 2025 after both sides dropped their appeals.

Carding said the long stretch of regulatory uncertainty helps explain why XRP failed to revisit its 2018 high during the 2021 crypto bull market, a period when Coinbase suspended trading in the token.

"The SEC case helps explain why XRP did not revisit its 2018 high in 2021, when Coinbase suspended trading, but the appeals were dropped in August 2025 with XRP above $3," Carding said. "Since then, XRP is down about 59%, against 32% for bitcoin and 44% for ether, and its circulating market capitalisation is down about 56%."

XRP is not alone, but relative weakness remains a key metric

Carding also said XRP is not the only token still below its early 2018 peak.

"On price, six of the other nine assets in the January 2018 top ten are further below their levels of that week," he said.

For investors tracking XRP from here, Carding said he is watching the token against bitcoin, along with net monthly distribution after re-escrow and changes in fund holdings.

"What I would watch is XRP against bitcoin, alongside net monthly distribution after re-escrow and changes in fund holdings," he said. "Relative weakness that persists as distribution slows would point to weaker demand."

CoinDesk summarized the point in plain terms: if XRP continues to underperform bitcoin even as fewer new tokens enter the market through Ripple’s escrow-related releases, that would suggest investor demand for XRP is fading.

This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan.
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