Jake Pahor said a rebuilt version of his long-running Bitcoin valuation model now places BTC at 24.3 on a 0-to-100 scale, in the bottom 20% of all readings since 2011. The shift did not come from a sharp market move, but from a model redesign that removes distortions caused by Bitcoin’s extreme early-year volatility and instead measures price against a forward-moving fair value range. The revised model, labeled v4.1, was tested against 21 manually marked cycle tops and bottoms and, according to Pahor, improved identification accuracy by about 35% versus the prior version. Even so, the new read leaves a notable gap versus past bear-market lows. He wrote that since 2014, every Bitcoin bear market has ended only after the score spent a meaningful period below 20. In prior examples, the model printed around 7 in 2015, about 15 in December 2018, and 18 at the November 2022 low of $15,742. In the current cycle, the lowest reading so far is 21.5, printed on July 1 when BTC traded at $58,550. Pahor said that means one of two things: either this cycle is structurally shallower, or the kind of washout seen at prior major bottoms has not happened yet. He added that BTC was at $64,085 at the time of writing, up 0.96% on the week, while the score had risen 1.6 points to 24.3.

Jake Pahor said a rebuilt Bitcoin valuation model now gives BTC a score of 24.3, placing it in the bottom 20% of all readings since 2011, but still above the sub-20 zone that appeared before every major bear-market bottom since 2014. The update, released as CSH Score v4.1, replaced an older framework that compared current prices with Bitcoin’s full trading history, including the extreme volatility of its early years. Pahor said the new version measures where price sits inside a forward-projecting fair-value range and showed about 35% better accuracy on 21 manually labeled cycle tops and bottoms. In his historical examples, the model printed around 7 at the 2015 bottom, about 15 in December 2018, and 18 at Bitcoin’s November 2022 low of $15,742, with readings staying below 20 for weeks around that period. In the current cycle, the lowest print so far was 21.5 on July 1, when BTC traded at $58,550. Pahor said he bought that day under a pre-written plan and would buy more aggressively if the score falls below 20. He also pointed to BTC reclaiming its 200-week moving average near $62.9K, a BTC-to-gold ratio of about 15.5 ounces, and Bitcoin dominance at 59% as the key figures he is watching.

Daiwa said in a July 13 research note that Tencent Holdings is expected to lift its AI capital expenditure outlook, a move the broker believes will put pressure on the company’s medium-term earnings. The firm lowered its 2026 to 2028 earnings-per-share forecasts by 1% to 6% to reflect that impact. The biggest revision was to AI spending. Daiwa raised its 2026 AI capex forecast for Tencent from RMB 108 billion to about RMB 181 billion, citing a stronger commitment to AI investment and improved chip supply. It said heavier depreciation would weigh on earnings in the near to medium term, though it could also support faster cloud business expansion and monetization of AI demand, which it expects may start to show from the second half of 2026. Daiwa also noted that Tencent’s gaming business growth has slowed against a high comparison base, while its market share gains remain intact. The broker kept its “buy” rating on Tencent but cut its target price from HK$700 to HK$670.

Lookonchain said two traders have opened opposite leveraged bets on Ether, each tied to 30,000 ETH and valued at $53.49 million. One trader opened a 20x leveraged short position, while the other opened a 10x leveraged long position of the same size. The tracker also shared each trader’s recent record. The trader behind the ETH short had previously closed three long positions in BTC, ETH, and SOL, with all three ending in profit. Total profit from those trades was $444,000. The trader who opened the ETH long had closed eight trades in total, six of which were profitable. That puts the win rate at 75%, with cumulative profit of $3.1 million, according to Lookonchain. The update was cited by ChainCatcher in a brief market note.

ChainCatcher reported that the crypto Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 27, based on data from Coinglass. The reading is up 2 points from the previous day. Coinglass data also showed that the 7-day average for the index is 23, while the 30-day average is 19. The update was published as a 7x24 news flash. This report only reflects the figures cited in the source, including the current index level, the day-over-day change, and the short- and medium-term averages provided by Coinglass.

BlockBeats reported on July 13 that a circuit breaker was triggered for South Korea’s KOSPI index on a Korean trading platform. According to the brief update, the index fell 8%, leading to a 20-minute trading halt. The source did not provide additional details on the market backdrop, affected sectors, or follow-up price action. The report was published as a 7x24 flash update, and the available information is limited to the trigger, the size of the drop, and the duration of the halt.

Lookonchain said two traders have opened opposite leveraged positions in ETH, with each trade sized at 30,000 ETH and valued at $53.49 million. One trader set up a 20x leveraged short position. Before this, the trader had closed three long positions in BTC, ETH, and SOL, all at a profit, for combined gains of $444,000. The other trader opened a 10x leveraged long position in 30,000 ETH, also valued at $53.49 million. That trader has closed eight trades so far, with six ending in profit, giving a 75% win rate and cumulative profit of $3.1 million. The update was published by Odaily, citing on-chain monitoring data from Lookonchain.

SPCX has fallen about 4.8% from its first-day opening price of $150, according to monitoring data from Hyperinsight cited by BlockBeats on July 13. The token was issued at $135, meaning it had opened at an 11.1% premium, and roughly half of that premium has now been erased as the price fell to around $142.80. The pullback has pushed all whale longs on Hyperliquid into unrealized losses, Hyperinsight said. One address beginning with 0x8e0, which started building a long position on the day SPCX was added to the Nasdaq index, is still holding a 20x leveraged long worth about $1.985 million. As of publication, the position had an average entry price of $153.68, an unrealized loss of roughly $151,000, and a return rate of about -141.7%. Its liquidation price was about $137.98, leaving it just $4.82 away from liquidation and making it the closest-to-liquidation address on the platform. Data also showed the whale had been buying SPCX continuously since July 7, executing 190 trades to open a total of 13,903.45 contracts at prices ranging from $145.99 to $156.22, with total turnover of about $2.137 million and no active long reductions recorded during the period.