Manifold

5 hours agoNews Editor

Manifold founder says quant trading is not just about finding alpha, but choosing the right table

Manifold founder Jae Chung used a long-form retrospective to explain how the firm built its early crypto trading business by avoiding direct competition with established quantitative giants and focusing instead on decentralized markets. He said the team initially had little formal quant experience and failed across a range of early strategies, from arbitrage and basis trades to statistical arbitrage, yield farming and deep learning. The turning point came when Manifold identified DeFi and decentralized exchanges as a market where its mix of crypto-native engineers and traditional quant researchers could build an edge. Chung described how the firm tested a rough TypeScript prototype for CEX-DEX arbitrage across venues including Binance and FTX and found that blockchain latency, passive on-chain liquidity and slower price adjustment created real opportunities even after fees. From there, the company rebuilt its stack in Go and Solidity, expanded across chains and DEXs, optimized gas usage, competed in priority gas auctions, and improved capital efficiency through an internal system called Hydra, later upgraded with Aave-based on-chain spot margin functionality. His core argument is that in trading, execution matters, but market selection matters just as much. He also said CEX-DEX arbitrage was highly profitable for a period, at times generating more than $10,000 a day on a few million dollars of capital and six-figure daily profits during volatile periods, before competition compressed returns over time.

160

OKX

3 hours agoNews Editor

Disclosed objections to OKX-ICE stock tokens rise to 50, including Nvidia

Disclosed objections tied to the OKX-ICE stock-token plan have climbed to 50, according to The Defiant, with Nvidia now among the companies named. The report says those objections span 44 of the venue’s original 63 proposed stock symbols, leaving 19 symbols without a disclosed opt-out so far. That count is the central update in the report and frames the current scope of public resistance to the proposed listing set. The article does not identify which companies make up the remaining 19 symbols, nor does it add detail beyond the disclosed objection count, the number of proposed symbols originally included, and Nvidia’s inclusion in the latest tally. The figures indicate that a majority of the originally proposed stock symbols have now been covered by publicly disclosed objections, while a smaller portion remains without a disclosed opt-out at the time of publication.

140

DeepSeek

3 hours agoNews Editor

DeepSeek outlines AI agent system aimed at cutting human oversight

Chinese artificial intelligence company DeepSeek has outlined a new design intended to make AI coding assistants more autonomous, allowing them to handle multiple tasks with less human intervention. According to a paper from the company’s DeepSeek Harness team, cited by Singapore’s South China Morning Post on Sunday, the goal is to reduce the amount of human effort needed to coordinate and monitor several AI agents at once. The team said multi-agent management is constrained not only by model capability but also by human attention, arguing that a single person can supervise only three to five active AI agent sessions at the same time. Under the proposed setup, tasks would be distributed across agents and their work coordinated by the system, while humans would focus on reviewing outputs and making decisions. The report said the proposal arrives as competition among AI developers intensifies, including among US firms Anthropic and OpenAI. Cointelegraph also noted that it reported in October that Chinese AI models had outperformed US peers in cryptocurrency trading tests, citing CoinGlass data, with DeepSeek posting the only positive unrealized return at 9.1%.

190

crypto politics

3 hours agoNews Editor

Crypto PACs stepped up Republican support in the final weeks before the Nov. 3 election

CoinDesk reported that crypto political action committees made a stronger push toward Republican candidates in the final weeks before the Nov. 3 election. The move came even as polling data and online betting markets were indicating that Democrats had a high chance of gaining greater power in Congress. The report frames the industry’s most visible political backing as moving in the opposite direction from those expectations. The input does not provide the names of the PACs involved, the size of the spending, or specific races affected, and those details were not disclosed in this brief item.

160

DeepSeek

3 hours agoNews Editor

DeepSeek outlines multi-agent design to cut human oversight in AI coding workflows

Chinese artificial intelligence company DeepSeek has unveiled a design proposal aimed at making AI coding assistants more autonomous when handling multiple tasks, with the stated goal of reducing the amount of human coordination and monitoring required. According to a Sunday report by the South China Morning Post, the proposal comes from a paper published by DeepSeek’s Harness team, which focuses on the operational burden created by supervising several AI agents at once. The paper argues that the ceiling for single-task performance depends on model capability, while the ceiling for multitasking depends on human attention. It also says one person can supervise only three to five active AI agent sessions at the same time. Under the proposed system, tasks would be assigned across agents and their work coordinated so that human operators can spend more time reviewing outputs and making decisions. The proposal arrives as competition among AI developers continues, including U.S. companies Anthropic and OpenAI. Cointelegraph reported in October last year, citing CoinGlass data, that Chinese AI models outperformed U.S. peers in cryptocurrency trading tests, with DeepSeek posting the only positive unrealized return at 9.1% in one experiment.

90

Policy Regulation

3 hours agoNews Editor

Bloomberg: Prediction market traders canvass U.S. voters to gain an edge before the midterms

Bloomberg reported that as the U.S. midterm elections draw closer, a group of experienced traders on Kalshi and Polymarket have been seeking an edge through in-person canvassing and voter data analysis. One of them, Douglas Campbell, a former Democratic National Committee economics professor and election model analyst, trades on Kalshi under the username AlexanderHam and has made more than $800,000 in cumulative profit, ranking sixth among the platform’s election traders. Another trader, David Bensoussan, is mainly active on Polymarket under the username Scottilicious and has earned more than $1.5 million in cumulative profit. His position of more than $280,000 is betting that Democrats will win the House, a result that the market currently prices at about 94%. Bloomberg said the use of field research to obtain an information advantage has raised concerns about information asymmetry and insider trading. Polymarket has also opened an investigation this week into suspicious trading during the Israeli election.

30

Coinbase

3 hours agoNews Editor

Galaxy says Coinbase-Binance BTC spread has widened to its widest level this year

Galaxy Head of Research Alex Thorn said the USDT-adjusted discount on Bitcoin on Coinbase relative to Binance has widened to its largest level of the year. He said the spread has been harder to read as a clean signal of U.S. demand because Binance had previously paused withdrawals, which limited cross-exchange arbitrage. With withdrawals now restored on Binance, the next point to watch is whether the price gap between the two exchanges starts to narrow. The comment focuses on market structure rather than a directional call, highlighting how operational constraints on one venue can distort pricing relationships that traders often use to gauge regional demand. Thorn’s remarks were cited by Odaily in a brief market update.

30

Bitcoin

3 hours agoNews Editor

Galaxy’s Alex Thorn says Coinbase BTC discount versus Binance has widened to the largest level this year

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, said the adjusted discount for Bitcoin on Coinbase relative to Binance’s USDT market has widened to its biggest level of the year. He added that the spread has been harder to read as a clean signal of U.S. demand because Binance had previously paused withdrawals, which limited cross-platform arbitrage. With withdrawals now restored on Binance, the next point to watch is whether the price gap between the two exchanges begins to narrow. The comment focuses on exchange-level pricing rather than a broader market call, and centers on how temporary trading frictions can distort the interpretation of inter-exchange spreads.

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