IOSG Ventures5 hours ago
News Editor IOSG says bear-market crypto investing is shifting from narratives to real revenue and infrastructure
IOSG Ventures used a keynote at Hong Kong Money Frontier 2026 to lay out how it is approaching the current crypto bear market, arguing that the center of gravity has moved away from pure narrative trades and toward businesses with verifiable revenue, cash flow and infrastructure value. The firm said it is still investing and has adjusted its portfolio mix by reducing primary-market exposure while increasing allocations to over-the-counter deals, liquid secondary markets and incubation.
The presentation framed the market through three large lenses: Bitcoin, stablecoins and Ethereum. On Bitcoin, IOSG said the four-year cycle still explains more than macro narratives, pointing to a 2025 peak and outlining internal bottoming scenarios in the $45,000-$60,000 range by late October 2026 or $40,000-$55,000 in Q1-Q2 2027. On stablecoins, the firm described 2026 as a turning-point year and said the GENIUS Act turning into law allows banks to issue dollars on-chain legally. On Ethereum, IOSG listed strengths in settlement, DeFi security, rollup finality and developer infrastructure, while also highlighting fee leakage to Layer 2s, ETH/BTC underperformance and a broader leadership question.
From there, IOSG highlighted four areas where it sees real businesses making money: stablecoins and payments, prediction markets, AI plus crypto, and on-chain trading and credit. Examples cited in the talk included Circle, fun.xyz, RedotPay, Polymarket, Kalshi, Grass, Hyperbolic, Nous Research, Collector Crypt and Hyperliquid.