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Microsoft
2026-09-22 08:31:12

Goldman Sachs Keeps Buy Rating on Microsoft, Says AI Margins Can Move Closer to Cloud Levels

Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy rating on Microsoft in a Sept. 20, 2026 NDR note and kept the stock on its Conviction Buy List, with a 12-month price target of $640. Based on the cited current price of $493.78, the implied upside is 29.6%. The bank said Microsoft’s enterprise AI platform transition is starting to validate strategic decisions made over the past three years, including early long-duration capital spending, balanced allocation between first-party applications and third-party customers, and a measured split between frontier labs and enterprise workloads. The note argues Microsoft’s control over supply chain execution and capacity ramp has improved versus a year ago. Long-duration capex has fallen to about 33% of total capex from roughly 50%, while CPU has replaced GPU as the largest component of short-duration capex. Goldman also highlighted a $51 billion quarter-over-quarter increase in fourth-quarter remaining performance obligations, all of which came from enterprise customers outside frontier labs. On profitability, Goldman said there is no structural reason AI gross margins cannot approach cloud gross margins over time. The bank also pointed to Microsoft’s silicon, model and software strategy, including MAIA, Jalapeno, MAI models, Foundry’s 11,000 hosted models, and the company’s view that changes in frontier model progress do not alter current demand signals driving capex.

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