CLARITY Act faces a 60-vote hurdle in the Senate as markets price slim odds of passage
The U.S. Senate is set to vote at 2:15 p.m. Eastern on Sept. 15 on a cloture motion tied to the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633). The vote would not decide whether the bill becomes law. It would only determine whether senators can formally begin debate and offer amendments. Even so, the procedural vote may prove decisive because failing to clear 60 votes could effectively end the bill’s path in 2026. The legislation is designed to draw a legal line between the authority of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in digital asset markets. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, but media reports say the caucus is not fully united, with Rand Paul and Josh Hawley identified as opponents and Thom Tillis signaling he would not support the measure without tougher ethics language. That leaves the bill needing at least seven Democratic or independent votes, and possibly more. Prediction market pricing remains cautious. On Polymarket, the contract asking whether the CLARITY Act will be signed into law in 2026 was still pricing the chance at 17.5% on Sept. 10. The revised text released this month made targeted changes on nominally decentralized protocols, DeFi scope, and federal credit unions, but left the main political disputes over ethics, non-custodial developer protections, and stablecoin yield largely untouched.








