In a widely anticipated speech, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said the recent PCE and CPI readings, though better than expected, do not convince him that underlying inflation has meaningfully improved. He assured markets that the Fed will achieve price stability, stressing that price stability should be the central bank's primary focus while inflation stays above 2%. Warsh's remarks come as critics question his streamlined communication strategy, which economists and market participants say has left the near-term economic and monetary policy outlook unclear. In a more detailed than usual explanation, Warsh emphasized the Fed's responsibility to deliver price stability. He is not expected to take questions from central bank officials and economists at the event.

The latest US Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the inflation gauge most closely watched by the Federal Reserve, showed little change. Headline PCE inflation came in at 3.7% year over year, matching the June reading. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, was also unchanged from June at 3.3%. According to the report cited by BlockBeats, PCE data often lands close to investor expectations because it incorporates other inflation readings that have already been released. Even so, the print offered a clearer view of the inflation backdrop at a time when the Fed is still dealing with price pressures. Attention is now turning to Fed Chair Warsh, who is scheduled to deliver an important speech on Friday. The report noted that while July CPI data brought some relief, with core CPI falling to 2.5%, PCE has remained noticeably firmer because it assigns different weights to spending categories. There is still uncertainty over how Warsh views the inflation problem he inherited. He has not added his own economic projections to the quarterly dot plot, and he has not indicated whether he could support rate hikes at upcoming meetings, an issue that has already divided Fed officials.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting are unlikely to materially shift market pricing for rate hikes, according to Citi, even though three Fed officials dissented against the decision to leave rates unchanged at that meeting. Those officials argued that rates should have been raised because core inflation was still running at 2.6%, above the Fed’s 2% target. Since then, newly released August data has weakened the case for additional tightening. July CPI data showed core prices, excluding food and energy, rose 2.5% year over year, the lowest reading since March 2021. At the same time, the July employment report showed the U.S. lost 23,000 jobs during the month. Citi’s chief U.S. economist Andrew Hollenhorst said the new figures would make it difficult for the meeting minutes to significantly alter market expectations, which have already moved toward lower odds of another hike. JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said the minutes may offer insight into how much tolerance other FOMC members have for inflation running above target and how officials assess inflation pressure going forward.

Federal Reserve official Austan Goolsbee said the latest Consumer Price Index data was encouraging, though he added that more data is still needed before drawing firmer conclusions. He also said the past two productivity readings were very disappointing, a point he said supported the decision to keep interest rates unchanged in July. Goolsbee added that if productivity continues to weaken, expectations tied to artificial intelligence would need to be reassessed. The remarks were reported by BlockBeats on Aug. 15.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said recent Consumer Price Index data has been encouraging, but he does not yet see enough proof to conclude inflation is moving steadily back to the Fed’s 2% target. He said inflation in the prior months, including May and June, had still been too high, and argued that policymakers would need to see another three to four months that follow June’s trend before gaining confidence that price pressures are truly cooling on a sustained basis. Goolsbee said he supported keeping interest rates unchanged in July and described inflation as his biggest concern. At the same time, he said the broader economy and labor market have remained basically stable. He also warned that a continued decline in retail sales would be worrying because consumer spending is a key pillar of the U.S. economy. He separately pointed to slowing productivity growth as another issue to watch. If AI-driven growth fails to hold up, he said, the narrative around artificial intelligence and monetary policy would need to be reconsidered. On the question of reducing the number of policy meetings, Goolsbee said he does not hold a strong view and is willing to wait for recommendations from the working group.

Bitunix said July producer price data in the United States eased some of the pressure around another Federal Reserve rate increase, but did not resolve the broader issue of high long-term funding costs. U.S. July PPI was flat on a monthly basis and rose 4.7% from a year earlier, while cooling CPI data released a day earlier also pointed to easing price pressure as energy costs retreated. Following the data, market pricing for a September Fed hike fell from about 50% to roughly 35% to 40%. The firm also highlighted signs that inflation pressure has not fully disappeared. Core final demand PPI, excluding food, energy and trade services, rose 0.4% month over month. Initial jobless claims increased to 209,000, suggesting some cooling in the labor market. Bitunix argued that the bigger constraint lies in long-term financing conditions. A $25 billion sale of 30-year U.S. Treasurys cleared at a high yield of 5.216%, the highest auction yield since 2001. With fiscal deficits elevated, Treasury supply increasing and the Federal Reserve no longer acting as the main buyer, longer-dated bonds may need a higher term premium to absorb supply. The firm added that yen carry trades remain another source of risk after USD/JPY moved back toward 160 following Japan’s intervention in the currency market.

Crypto markets saw a dense mix of policy, institutional and infrastructure developments over the past 24 hours. Hyperliquid is exploring a compliant route into the U.S. perpetual futures market, according to The Information, a move that would matter because the platform does not currently serve U.S. users. At the same time, GSR markets head Spencer Hallarn said in an interview with Cryptonomist that many tokenization platforms still lack meaningful trading activity, arguing the bottleneck is platform design rather than demand for tokenized assets. Elsewhere, MARA disclosed in an SEC filing that it pledged 18,750 BTC to secure two bitcoin-backed loans totaling $750 million, with proceeds set to support general corporate purposes and its acquisition of Long Ridge Energy & Power. New York City Council has also opened an inquiry into advertising practices across prediction market platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi, adding another layer of scrutiny to the sector. Other major items included Fidelity’s plan to add staking and quarterly cash distributions to its spot Ether ETF, a Coreum bridge exploit that drained nearly 200,000 XRP, and data showing public bitcoin miners have sold about 28,000 BTC this year. The session also featured updates on Bitmine’s growing ETH treasury, Kalshi’s fundraising push, and a fresh warning from Australia’s ASIC over the digital asset platform Yepbit.

Bitcoin’s quiet tape may be the bigger signal. In a market note cited by ChainCatcher, SpecialistXBT argued that BTC is not short on headlines but short on participation, with weekly trading volume at its lowest level since 2023 and Deribit’s BTC DVOL touching a recent bottom. The note points to options data showing stronger demand for near-term downside protection, with 25 Delta Skew in positive territory across one-, three- and six-month tenors and a key gamma flip zone around $61,000 to $60,000. Above that range, dealer hedging may keep volatility contained; below it, the same hedging flow could amplify downside. The piece also questions a bullish reading of two recent developments: Michael Saylor’s sale of BTC worth several hundred million dollars, equal to about 0.13% of Strategy’s holdings, and STRC’s rebound from around $73 to $95.45. In the author’s view, those moves may not show that bad news has been absorbed. They may instead reflect a market too thin to process large spot exits. Strategy’s recent actions — adding $650 million in dollar reserves and repurchasing $109 million of STRC, with the two-week buyback total put at about $190 million — helped lift STRC, but did not solve the central issue. As long as issuance through the ATM program begins near $100, the report argues, sellers and short sellers still have an incentive to lean against that level.