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US PPI
2026-09-11 04:11:07

US August PPI tops estimates as diesel surge pushes rate-cut hopes further out

The U.S. producer price index report released on Sept. 10 reset market expectations for the Federal Reserve. Headline PPI rose 0.4% month over month and 5.4% year over year in August, while diesel prices jumped 24.1% in a single month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said diesel alone accounted for more than one-third of the overall increase. Markets reacted quickly. CME FedWatch pricing showed the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September rising from 62% to about 70% after the data. The U.S. dollar index gained 0.4% intraday, stock-index futures slipped, and Treasury yields moved higher across the curve. The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.34% to 5.37%, the highest level since 2007. The report landed on the same day Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the bond market was in a "very good state" after weaker-than-expected demand in a Treasury buyback operation. At a closed-door Piper Sandler event, Duquesne Capital founder Stanley Druckenmiller struck the opposite tone, saying borrowing costs were "still a little low," calling the idea that policy is already restrictive "ridiculous," and arguing that rate cuts are no longer necessary. The debate now shifts to whether energy-driven producer inflation will pass through to consumers. That makes the Sept. 11 CPI release the next key test for markets, long-end yields, the dollar, oil-linked assets, rate-sensitive tech names tied to AI capital spending, and crypto.

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