A Century of Tech Leadership in U.S. Stocks: The Longest Run Has Also Been the Weakest
Jim Paulsen argues that the current U.S. technology-led market cycle, which began in 2006 and is still running, is the longest such stretch in the past 100 years but also the weakest by several key measures. Looking back to 1926, he identifies six major periods when tech stocks led the broader market. The present run has reached 241 months, far longer than the previous average of 63.4 months and well ahead of the longest earlier cycle, which lasted 99 months and ended in 1960. Yet since 2006, the current cycle has produced only 6% in excess average annualized return versus the broader market, the lowest of any historical tech leadership phase in his dataset. Paulsen also rejects the idea that diversified tech investing is naturally a buy-and-hold winner. Across all months since 1926, U.S. tech stocks outperformed the broader market only 50.5% of the time. During long leadership periods, that figure rises to 58.1%, but outside them it drops to 44.5%. He says past leadership phases were typically followed by long and painful periods of underperformance. His broader warning is not a call for a full exit. Instead, he points to growing signs of excess tied to the AI boom, including more aggressive corporate spending, heavier debt use, stronger media fixation on innovation themes, and rising investor complacency. His recommendation is to cut exposure to tech and other “new era” sectors to an underweight position rather than sell everything.






