KINS

World Cup
2026-07-21 10:49:00

World Cup prediction market review: $474 million in pre-match bets, with a handful of whales driving most of the gains

PANews, citing PA Beacon data compiled from the Polymarket Data API, reviewed large pre-match trades across all 104 matches of the 2026 World Cup and found that so-called smart money ended the tournament in the black, but only after a sharp shift from early losses. The sample covered 312 win/draw/loss markets and only counted pre-match BUY trades worth at least $5,000, with positions grouped by wallet, match, market and direction. By the end of the event, total pre-match buying reached $474.04 million, of which $298.49 million was on the correct side. Based on a hold-to-resolution estimate, total returns came to about $502.93 million, implying net profit of $28.8858 million and an ROI of 6.09%. That headline number hides a much more uneven picture. Out of 1,856 wallets, 1,003 were profitable and 853 lost money, yet the top five profit-making wallets accounted for 37.85% of gross profits, and the top 10 accounted for 55.39%. Some accounts, including mintblade and GRIMDRIP, made outsized gains from just one or two concentrated bets, while high-frequency participants such as swisstony posted much smaller profits despite covering most of the tournament. The data also showed that large consensus by dollar amount was often driven by a few wallets rather than broad market agreement, especially in knockout-stage betting on Spain, Argentina, France and England.

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World Cup prediction market review: $474 million in pre-match bets, with a handful of whales driving most of the gains