Bhutan sold another $6.7 million in Bitcoin this week, extending a three-week pattern of measured sales. Wallets linked to the government still hold about $372 million in BTC, pointing to treasury management rather than a rushed exit.
Bitcoin fell to $63K and Ethereum to $1,910 after US strikes on Iran, but both rebounded quickly. $300M in liquidations were contained. Capital shifted to tokenized gold. Options flows hint at March rebound bets.
Strong US employment data fuels speculation that the Fed will keep rates steady through 2026, pressuring Bitcoin below $80,000. Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and inflation risks add to stagflation concerns, with QCP Warning of further downside.
QCP Capital said in its latest macro-themed report that the clearest feature of the week has been a widening divergence across markets. In oil, the headline story points to disruption: peace talks are in trouble and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level since late May. But underneath that, Saudi Arabia is repricing and OPEC+ has raised production quotas again, suggesting supply conditions are improving. The same pattern appears in rates. QCP noted that Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has turned explicitly hawkish, even as signs of softer US consumer demand are building. Revolving credit, after growing more than 10% year over year in April, has moved into contraction. In crypto, QCP highlighted Strategy’s shift in financing. The company has increased its US dollar reserves through stock issuance rather than by selling its Bitcoin holdings. The firm’s broader point is that markets are now being pulled in two directions at once: surface-level narratives on one side, and funding or supply-demand realities on the other. According to QCP, the central question is which side gets repriced first.
QCP Capital said market pressure is building after the U.S. and Iran clashed again over the weekend, 12 days after signing a memorandum of understanding. The two sides accused each other of violating a 60-day ceasefire, clouding the outlook for a second round of talks. Oil has stayed near $70, but QCP said prices could still move higher if supply returns more slowly than expected. In crypto, implied volatility for BTC and ETH has kept rising. Demand has increased for July BTC puts struck at $55,000 to $58,000, pointing to continued hedging interest. At the same time, the market also saw a large buy order for a $64,000 BTC call expiring on the 17th. QCP attributed weaker sentiment to continued net outflows from spot ETFs, concerns tied to Strategy, and pressure in U.S. equities. The firm said traders this week will be watching remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the ECB forum, along with ISM manufacturing PMI and U.S. nonfarm payrolls. With holiday-thinned liquidity, QCP expects volatility to stay elevated.
QCP said the crypto market has started the week without a clear direction, with traders now watching several macro events for clues on the rate path and broader risk appetite. The firm pointed to Tuesday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index reading and testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Warsh before Congress as the key near-term signals. At the same time, the U.S. second-quarter earnings season is set to begin with major banks. QCP said institutional adoption and ETF demand are still providing support for the crypto market. Even so, it added that Bitcoin may remain stuck in a range in the short term until a clearer macro catalyst emerges. The note frames this week as one driven less by crypto-specific developments and more by incoming economic data, central bank communication and early corporate earnings, all of which could affect sentiment across risk assets.
Bhutan's state-owned investment arm DHI moved 519.7 BTC (~$36.7M) to QCP Capital, continuing its quiet selling pattern. Holdings have fallen to about 4,452 BTC ($319M) from a peak of ~13,000 BTC. The kingdom uses OTC trades to avoid market impact and may continue monthly sales of $5M–$30M through 2026.
Zcash surged nearly 25% to almost $335 after a temporary ceasefire involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran lifted risk appetite across crypto markets. The rally pushed ZEC’s weekly gain to 33%, though analysts warn that geopolitical risks and upcoming CPI data remain key market tests.
