The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) and VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) suffered a harsh reversal this week, losing over $500 billion in market cap. This article analyzes the reasons for the crash, including AI bubble fears and earnings disappointments, and assesses whether a rebound is likely.
SOXX and SMH ETFs lost over $500B market cap this week amid AI bubble worries. Michael Burry shorts Nvidia and Palantir, while OpenAI's massive deals raise monetization doubts. Short-term earnings may support rebound, but long-term valuation risks remain.
SOXX and SMH fell sharply as investors reassessed lofty AI valuations, post-earnings reactions, and monetization risks. Markets are now watching Qualcomm and Nvidia results for clues on whether semiconductor ETFs can rebound.
In the first half of 2026, investor positioning around AI demand heavily favored memory and semiconductor names, with Sandisk up more than 530% year to date and Micron up more than 230%. The rally reflected strong market appetite for companies seen as direct beneficiaries of AI infrastructure spending. However, that momentum later weakened. Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) fell 25% from its June peak, while VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) declined about 12%, signaling a broader pullback across memory and chip-related exposure. Pressure intensified after reports that Meta was moving to sell excess GPU capacity, a development that added to selling in AI infrastructure stocks and computing service providers. In contrast, Bitcoin rebounded from a two-year low, highlighting a notable divergence between crypto price action and parts of the AI-linked equity complex. The report does not provide the magnitude of Bitcoin’s rebound, but the cross-asset split points to a shift in short-term risk allocation.
The rally in tech stocks has recently slowed, with traders' confidence wavering. The volatility gap between the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 has widened to the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, driven by increased buying of Nasdaq put options, signaling growing concerns over a potential pullback in AI-related sectors. Semiconductor ETF (SMH) dropped over 5% on Thursday, further reflecting the weakening momentum of previously hot tech stocks.
The volatility spread between the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 has widened to its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, driven by surging demand for Nasdaq put options, reflecting growing concerns over a potential correction in AI stocks. The semiconductor ETF (SMH) dropped over 5% on Thursday, confirming that the rally in hot tech names is losing steam. While call option activity remains elevated, market sentiment has visibly shifted from extreme optimism to caution. This shift could spill over into the crypto market, particularly affecting AI-related tokens.
近期科技股涨势明显放缓，纳斯达克100指数与标普500指数的波动率差距已扩大至2008年金融危机以来的最高水平。投资者购买纳指看跌期权的意愿增强，反映出对科技股尤其是AI板块潜在回调的担忧加剧。周四半导体ETF（SMH）下跌超5%，热门科技股势头减弱。尽管看涨期权热情有所回落，但仍处于较高水平。市场情绪转变可能对加密货币市场产生传导效应，尤其是与AI概念相关的代币。
According to Jin10 data and reported by ChainCatcher, the recent rally in technology stocks has lost momentum, with trader confidence wavering. The volatility spread between the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 has widened to its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, driven by a surge in demand for Nasdaq put options indicating growing concern about a potential correction in the tech sector, particularly in AI-related names. On Thursday, the Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell more than 5%, further reflecting the weakening of previously hot tech stocks. Although bullish options activity has moderated slightly, it remains elevated, signaling a shift toward defensive positioning.
