On Aug. 17, market data cited by BlockBeats and sourced from Bitget showed mixed performance in Japanese equities at the close. The Nikkei 225 index ended the session up 0.6% at 6922.05 points. In contrast, Japan’s TOPIX index closed down 0.3% at 4184.11 points. The update was published as a market analysis brief by BlockBeats. No additional market context or drivers were provided in the source report.
Goldman Sachs’ Japan equity strategy team argues that the setup behind the August 2024 selloff in Japanese equities is not in place today, at least not through the currency channel. Bruce Kirk said the macro conditions that could trigger a rapid yen appreciation have weakened, making a repeat of the 2024-style FX shock less likely. But that does not make Japanese stocks safer. The bank says positioning in equities is now more crowded than it was before the 2024 drawdown. Foreign net buying, hedge fund allocations and retail margin balances all sit above, or well above, July 2024 levels. TOPIX and the Nikkei 225 have also risen sharply from those earlier marks, while gains this year have been concentrated in banks, metals, electronics, precision instruments and AI-linked exporters. Goldman’s read is that the main danger has shifted. In 2024, the market was blindsided by a fast 11% yen move in three weeks, followed by a chain reaction of stop-losses and forced deleveraging. This time, the yen’s weakness is already priced in, and the bigger tail risk may come from a break in the global AI growth narrative or a geopolitical event that hits crowded positions tied to that theme.
Japanese and South Korean equities finished higher on July 27, according to market data cited by BlockBeats from Bitget. The Nikkei 225 Index closed up 0.5% at 64,931.19. Japan’s TOPIX rose 1.4% to 4,066.07. South Korea’s KOSPI also ended the session in positive territory, gaining 0.97% to 6,755.74. The move left major benchmarks across the two markets broadly higher by the close. The figures were reported as part of a brief market update published by BlockBeats.
JPMorgan’s quantitative team says the market’s AI fear cycle has not fully run its course, arguing that buying the dip in AI semiconductor names before mid-August still carries elevated risk. The call is based on the bank’s “AI Bubble Interest Score,” a metric that tracks the volume of negative global media coverage around an AI bubble narrative rather than price action itself. The score peaked on June 29 and has started to decline, but it still stands at 687, which JPMorgan places in the highest historical quintile. In that range, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, or SOX, has historically posted an average 20-day return of -0.7%, with a 53.8% probability of a drawdown. JPMorgan outlined three thresholds for risk to cool: 629, 560 and 418. The report says the first stage of entry could be considered near 629 and the second near 560, while a meaningful easing in the narrative may not arrive until around Aug. 12. The note also draws a distinction between Japan, where AI positioning appears closer to clearing, and the U.S., where sentiment around an AI bubble remains the more dominant force.
Metaplanet, Japan's leading Bitcoin treasury company, is navigating its first bear market with a $490M unrealized loss and 83.5% stock decline. Despite this, it continues adding BTC but risks removal from TOPIX index due to crypto exposure rules.
JPX CEO Hiromi Yamaji said Japan's first crypto ETF could list in 2027, a year earlier than expected. Meanwhile, a proposal to exclude firms with over 50% crypto assets from TOPIX sparks industry pushback.
JPX CEO Hiromi Yamaji said crypto ETFs could list by 2027, earlier than expected. Meanwhile, a TOPIX rule change to exclude firms with over 50% crypto assets faces opposition from Metaplanet and others, creating a complex market outlook.
Japan Exchange Group CEO Hiromi Yamaji said the first crypto ETF could list in 2027, earlier than expected. Meanwhile, a proposal to exclude crypto-heavy firms from TOPIX faces strong opposition from Metaplanet and others, creating a mixed market outlook.
