‹ BackNewsTalos

Talos

Cisco Talos launches CAIRN framework to detect AI-integrated malware
Study tracks meme coin lifespans: fast peaks, slow collapses
Meme Coins
2026-10-08 05:29:09

Study finds meme coins peak fast, but the slide to a 95% drawdown takes much longer

A market study by Victor Ramirez, translated by Saoirse for Foresight News, examines how long meme coins typically last from first trade to collapse. Using a Kaplan-Meier survival model and a sample of 150 meme tokens from Talos market data, the report defines a token’s life cycle through three milestones: first trade, all-time high, and a 95% drawdown from that high. The sample is limited to tokens launched after BONK’s listing in December 2023, when the Solana meme coin wave began. The headline numbers are stark. The median time for a meme coin to reach its all-time high after first trading is 17.2 days, and one quarter of tokens top out in just 1.6 days. By contrast, the median time from the all-time high to a 95% collapse is 370 days. Looking at broader performance, more than half of the tokens in the study are down 95% from their peaks, and only 5 out of 151 sampled tokens still trade above their first-day price. The report also argues that the sample likely overstates survival because it only includes tokens that generated market data on at least one centralized exchange. Many tokens issued directly through low-friction launch platforms such as shturl.c were excluded. Even so, the data shows that most meme coins never recover meaningfully once activity and price peak, with on-chain active address retention for leading names falling below 7% after their activity highs.

220
Study finds meme coins peak fast, but the slide to a 95% drawdown takes much longer
Study finds most meme coins peak fast and rarely reclaim prior highs
Meme Coins
2026-10-08 03:33:10

Meme coin study finds 66% peak only once, with half completing the full boom-bust cycle in about 456 days

A market study cited by MarsBit paints a bleak long-term picture for meme coins, even as the sector keeps drawing traders and liquidity into newer blockchain ecosystems. Using a sample of 150 meme tokens from Talos market data, the report defines a token’s lifecycle through three points: first exchange trade, all-time high, and a 95% drawdown from that peak. The median time from first trade to all-time high was just 17.2 days, while one quarter of tokens peaked in only 1.6 days. After reaching that high, the median time to a 95% collapse was 370 days. The report also found that more than half of the sampled meme coins were down 95% from their all-time highs, and only 5 out of 151 tokens still traded above their first-day price. In the Solana meme coin era, 50% of tokens completed the full path from launch to all-time high to a 95% decline within an average of 456 days, and roughly 90% had fallen 95% from peak by day 1,000. The authors said two-thirds of meme coins never staged a second rally and effectively peaked only once. At the same time, the study warns that the sample is biased toward relatively successful tokens because every asset included had exchange price data from at least one centralized venue. That means the findings likely overstate the survival time of the broader meme coin universe, especially tokens launched directly on low-friction issuance platforms.

220
Meme coin study finds 66% peak only once, with half completing the full boom-bust cycle in about 456 days
Meme coin study finds 66% rally only once, with half completing the cycle in 456 days
Source says Wells Fargo is in talks with Payward on crypto liquidity partnership
Coin Metrics maps the life cycle of meme coins: 17.2 days to peak, 370 days to a 95% drawdown