China’s machine tool exports top Germany for the first time, but the harder test starts now

China’s machine tool exports reached 8.6 billion euros in 2025, accounting for about 21% of the global market and overtaking Germany’s 7.1 billion euros for the first time, according to the German Machine Tool Builders’ Association (VDW). The shift marks a notable break from the long-standing view that China relied heavily on expensive imported equipment from Germany and Japan for high-end manufacturing. The report traces that change through two forces. One was policy support through the national “04 Special Project,” launched in 2009 and run through 2020, which raised the localization rate of high-end CNC systems from less than 1% to 31.9% and lifted MTBF for complete high-end CNC machine tools from about 600 hours to more than 2,000 hours. The other was demand from China’s electric vehicle supply chain, including integrated die-casting, battery housings, and electric drive components, which created new processing needs and shortened feedback loops between equipment makers and local customers. Still, the article argues that export leadership reflects scale and market coverage more than full-spectrum technical leadership. High-end CNC systems, spindles, ball screws, guideways, precision grinders, and overseas service capabilities remain areas where Chinese suppliers are still catching up. It also notes that some exports counted under China include equipment made in China by foreign companies, and that after-sales support and long-term precision retention will be central to whether China can hold the top spot.