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Federal Reser
2026-07-31 17:08:10

Barkin says it remains an open question whether rates are high enough

Federal Reserve official Thomas Barkin said it remains an “open question” whether the current level of interest rates is high enough to bring inflation under control. He also said he is unsure whether he would have voted with the three regional Fed presidents who backed a rate hike this week. In an interview on Friday, Barkin said there is a solid case for keeping policy tight and reversing part of last year’s rate cuts. At the same time, he pointed to softer inflation data in June and said policymakers still have time before the next meeting to judge whether the current stance is appropriate. Barkin will not vote on interest-rate decisions until next year. He also voiced doubt over whether the labor market has materially strengthened, saying it does not feel very tight, and added that uneven price pass-through across the economy makes it hard to tell how much inflation remains.

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Barkin says it remains an open question whether rates are high enough
Federal Reser
2026-07-29 23:34:54

Warsh rejects “pause” label for Fed hold, says markets already absorbed most tightening

Federal Reserve Chair Warsh said the market had already done much of the tightening work since the Fed’s June meeting, pushing back on any description of the latest decision to keep rates unchanged as a “pause.” Speaking on July 30, Warsh said he would not call the decision a pause “in any sense,” adding that if the label must be used, market moves since mid-June point in the opposite direction. According to the report cited by BlockBeats, yields on both the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes have risen by about 20 basis points since the Fed’s mid-June policy meeting. Warsh said financial markets had not paused their adjustment during that stretch. Instead, they kept repricing based on incoming inflation data and the strength of economic growth. He said inflation figures affected market expectations, while resilient growth pushed both nominal and real interest rates higher. Warsh added that although the Fed did not explicitly change its policy rate at this meeting, that should be seen as the beginning of the broader policy story rather than the end.

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Warsh rejects “pause” label for Fed hold, says markets already absorbed most tightening
Federal Reser
2026-07-27 05:56:43

Goldman Sachs expects Fed to hold rates this week as focus shifts to policy guidance

Goldman Sachs analysts expect the Federal Reserve to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at this week’s meeting, according to a report cited by Jin10 and carried by ChainCatcher. The bank said the market impact of that decision will depend less on the rate outcome itself and more on how Fed Chair Walsh explains the move and frames the path of policy ahead. In the report, analysts warned that if the Fed does not provide enough guidance on the economic outlook or on how it may respond to incoming data, the current stability in the long-end U.S. Treasury yield curve and inflation risk premium could face renewed volatility. Money markets are still assigning a 31.5% probability of a rate hike this week, even though the prevailing market view remains that rates will stay on hold. The note points to a gap between market pricing and the broader consensus, with communication now seen as the key variable for near-term reaction.

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Goldman Sachs expects Fed to hold rates this week as focus shifts to policy guidance
Federal Reser
2026-07-24 22:02:41

CME FedWatch shows 62.1% odds of no rate change in July

According to a report cited by ChainCatcher from Jin10, CME FedWatch data shows the Federal Reserve is currently seen holding rates unchanged in July with a 62.1% probability, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike stands at 37.9%. For September, the same data shows the probability of no rate change at 15.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 56.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 28.7%. The figures reflect current market pricing tracked by CME FedWatch as cited in the report.

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CME FedWatch shows 62.1% odds of no rate change in July