macro policy

JPMorgan

2026-09-14 03:14:11

JPMorgan Raises Its Forecast for Fed Rate Hikes in 2026

JPMorgan now expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice in 2026, with 25-basis-point hikes projected for September and December. The updated call marks an increase from the bank’s previous forecast, which had penciled in only one rate hike in December. The revision points to a firmer outlook for monetary tightening than JPMorgan had earlier anticipated. The update was reported by BlockBeats on Sept. 14.

680

HTX DeepThink

2026-09-08 04:02:52

HTX DeepThink says August jobs data weakened the case for a Fed pause, with CPI now the key test

HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst Chloe said the August U.S. labor report has largely undercut the market narrative that a rapid deterioration in employment would force the Federal Reserve to pause. According to her analysis, nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, well above expectations, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Chloe said the market’s focus has now shifted to this week’s Consumer Price Index report. In her view, a strong labor print does not mean the Fed must raise rates, but it does give policymakers more room to act. She added that Warsh declined to make any prior commitment at Jackson Hole, making this week’s inflation data the first real stress test of what she described as a new policy framework. She outlined two paths for risk assets. If core CPI posts a mild decline, rate-hike odds could fall quickly, BTC could break above $82,500, and U.S. growth stocks could rebound. If core inflation reaccelerates, markets may price in a September hike more aggressively, Treasury yields could test 5%, and BTC could retreat to the $74,000-$77,000 range, with high-valuation AI names, Neocloud stocks, and altcoins facing heavier pressure.

880

Federal Reser

2026-09-03 13:47:59

Market Cuts September Fed Hike Odds to About 50%

Market pricing for a Federal Reserve rate increase this month has moved close to an even split, according to CME FedWatch data cited by BlockBeats on Sept. 3. The probability of a 25-basis-point hike is now about 50%, down from 70% a day earlier. The shift came after several Fed officials pushed back against the view that another rate increase was effectively locked in. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support keeping rates unchanged if August data shows inflation continuing to improve. A day earlier, New York Fed President John Williams said the case for raising rates was not strong enough at this point. The repricing shows that expectations around the upcoming Fed decision have become notably less one-sided within a day.

820

Gold

2026-08-31 16:25:00

Analysis says Fed-Treasury policy split may mark a turning point for gold

Gold extended its decline on the final trading day of August, according to Moneycontrol, after international spot gold had already fallen more than 3% in the previous session, its biggest one-day drop since June 10. During Monday trading, the metal briefly slipped below $4,400 per ounce before trimming losses later in the session. The report said the sell-off appeared, on the surface, to be tied to hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. But it argued that a deeper shift is now shaping the market: expectations for a weaker U.S. dollar, which had previously helped push gold higher, are running into resistance from higher interest rates and rising U.S. Treasury yields. In that view, the key dividing line for gold is not simply whether Warsh sounds hawkish. The bigger question is whether upcoming U.S. economic data can support the current rate-hike expectations, and whether the Federal Reserve or the Treasury ultimately gains the upper hand in this policy tug-of-war. Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at GAMA Asset Management, said gold could retreat to $4,200-$4,300 per ounce in the short term, though he added that he remains a long-term holder.

790

gold

2026-08-30 22:49:46

Gold Pulls Back to Around $4,460 as Institutions Shift to Derivatives

Gold prices have turned volatile as two policy forces in the United States pull the market in opposite directions. On one side, the U.S. Treasury expanded purchases of longer-dated government bonds, a move described in the source report as adding liquidity and feeding a debasement trade that helped spot gold rise 10% in August. On the other, Federal Reserve Chair Huaxu reiterated the central bank’s 2% inflation target and signaled the possibility of further rate hikes, supporting the U.S. dollar and pushing gold nearly 3% lower from recent highs to around $4,460 an ounce. Against that backdrop, institutional investors are not exiting gold outright. Instead, according to Bloomberg as cited in the source material, some are cutting back on simple spot exposure and moving into structured derivatives. These include call spreads, such as positions built around a $4,900 to $5,300 range, as well as cross-asset exotic options tied to markets like USD/JPY or energy benchmarks. The appeal is cost control: investors can reduce premium outlays, define payoff ranges more clearly, and keep exposure to longer-term inflation themes while limiting downside risk in a market now expected to trade within a broad $4,200 to $4,700 band in the near term.

900

US inflation

2026-08-27 02:17:12

US July PCE Holds at 3.7% as Warsh Speech Nears and Rate-Hike Odds Rise

Fresh US inflation data did not show a renewed surge, but it also failed to deliver the cooling many economists had expected — and that was enough to shift rate expectations higher ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. The Commerce Department reported that the July personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3.7% from a year earlier, unchanged from June and above the 3.6% forecast in a Reuters survey. Core PCE also held steady year over year at 3.3%, while the monthly readings for both headline and core inflation came in firmer than expected. Markets reacted quickly. Fed funds futures moved to price roughly a 44% chance of a September rate increase, up from about 36% before the release, while traders fully priced in one additional hike by year-end. At the same time, inflation-adjusted consumer spending was flat in July, highlighting a cooling household sector even as other parts of the economy remained resilient. Second-quarter GDP growth was revised to an annualized 1.5%, but the internals told a more complicated story: consumer spending, business investment excluding housing, and final sales to private domestic purchasers all pointed to solid underlying demand. That leaves Warsh facing a difficult message in Jackson Hole, with inflation still above target, growth sending mixed signals, and price pressures increasingly central to the political debate ahead of the midterm elections.

950

Bank of Korea

2026-08-27 02:45:46

Bank of Korea governor says rate hikes are expected to come gradually

The governor of the Bank of Korea said rates are expected to rise gradually, according to a newsflash published by Odaily. The source material does not provide a timetable, the size of any future increases, or additional policy guidance. The item was categorized as a 7x24 newsflash in the input. No further comments, market data, or supporting details were included in the source text.

870

US Treasury

2026-08-21 10:00:00

Treasury buyback move revives debate over a "Bessent Put," but QE still looks far off

The U.S. Treasury’s decision to raise the size of its liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated Treasuries has triggered a fresh round of debate over whether Washington is becoming less willing to tolerate sharply higher long-end yields. On Aug. 19, the Treasury said it would increase single-operation buybacks for 10-20 year and 20-30 year nominal coupon securities from a maximum of $2 billion to at least $4 billion, with the new arrangement taking effect on Sept. 9. The move came after 30-year Treasury yields briefly climbed to about 5.34%, a level not seen since 2007, before easing after the announcement. The discussion is centered less on the size of the buyback than on the timing. The change arrived roughly two weeks after the latest Quarterly Refunding Announcement rather than through the usual debt-management window, prompting investors to ask whether Treasury Secretary Bessent is signaling a lower tolerance for disorder in the long-bond market. The Heisenberg Report, citing Nomura cross-asset strategist Charlie McElligott and Rabobank strategist Michael Every, frames that idea as a market-created "Bessent Put" rather than an official policy guarantee. The article argues that buybacks are not the same as quantitative easing. Treasury operations are debt-management tools, while QE is a Federal Reserve balance-sheet expansion. It also says any move toward yield curve control or large-scale asset purchases would require much worse market and economic conditions than those seen so far.

630