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Polymarket
4 hours ago

Polymarket odds of Republicans winning fewer than 170 House seats rise to 28%

PPP’s prediction market tracker said the Polymarket contract on Republicans ending up with fewer than 170 seats in the House after the midterm election rose to 28%, up 27% over the past 24 hours. A related market, covering a Republican House seat count between 170 and 174 after the midterm election, also climbed to 28%, marking a 25% gain over the same period. The update reflects movement in two election-related contracts tracked by PPP on Polymarket.

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Polymarket odds of Republicans winning fewer than 170 House seats rise to 28%
Polymarket
Sep 22, 2026

Polymarket odds of a Claude Opus release on Sept. 22 climb to 77%

PPP’s prediction market tracker shows that the Polymarket contract on whether the next Claude Opus model will be released on Sept. 22 has risen to 77%, up 50% over the past 24 hours. The market uses a narrow resolution standard: only a new model that Anthropic officially names as “Opus” counts, with examples including Claude Opus 5.1, Opus 5.5, or Opus 6. Other model names such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, and Mythos do not qualify unless Anthropic formally labels them as Opus. The release date is judged by the calendar date in U.S. Eastern Time. To resolve positively, the model must be genuinely available to the public. Public betas and open rolling waitlists qualify, while closed betas, invite-only access, and private availability do not. If Anthropic’s website merely displays a model name, placeholder, or mistaken label without real public access, that also does not count. Final resolution will rely primarily on Anthropic’s official information, with checks against credible media reports.

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Polymarket odds of a Claude Opus release on Sept. 22 climb to 77%
Polymarket
Sep 19, 2026

Polymarket odds of ETH hitting $2,700 in September rise to 66%

PPP’s prediction market tracker shows a sharp move in Polymarket pricing for Ethereum targets this month. The market for ETH reaching $2,700 during the rest of September climbed to 66%, up 38% over the past 24 hours. A separate market for ETH touching $2,800 rose to 40%, marking a 24% gain over the same period. Settlement rules for these contracts are tied specifically to Binance’s ETH/USDT market. Under those rules, the contract resolves to Yes if the high of any 1-minute Binance ETH/USDT candle reaches or exceeds the target price at any point during the specified month; otherwise, it resolves to No. Prices from other exchanges or trading pairs are not counted for settlement.

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Polymarket odds of ETH hitting $2,700 in September rise to 66%
Polymarket
Aug 30, 2026

Polymarket Odds for ETH Dropping to $2,400 in August Fall to 30%, Down 31% in 24 Hours

According to the PPP prediction market monitoring tool, Polymarket's market for ETH dropping to $2,400 in the remaining days of August now shows a 30% probability, down 31% in the past 24 hours. The odds of falling to $2,300 are just 4%, down 4% in the same period. The market settles based on Binance's ETH/USDT 1-minute candlestick high price. Within the specified window — from 00:00 ET on August 1 to 23:59 ET on August 31 — if any 1-minute high reaches the target price, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, No. Other exchanges and pairs are ignored. A 30% yes-probability implies a 70% chance of ETH holding above $2,400 for the rest of the month. The sharp reduction in the odds over a single day is a key takeaway from the data. The market's binary structure means only two outcomes are possible, and the current pricing is derived directly from the latest updates to the underlying Binance price feed. The figures come from the PPP tool and were distributed via an Odaily newsflash.

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Polymarket Odds for ETH Dropping to $2,400 in August Fall to 30%, Down 31% in 24 Hours
Polymarket
Aug 28, 2026

Polymarket Odds for Moonshot to Rank Second on Arena.ai Surge to 91%

Polymarket now shows a 91% probability that Moonshot finishes August as the second-ranked Chinese AI company on Arena.ai, up 72% in 24 hours. Z.ai, the rival candidate, sits at 5%, down 70% in the same window. The prediction market will settle against a snapshot of Arena.ai's Text Arena Overall leaderboard taken at 00:00 Beijing time on September 1 — that's 12:00 ET on August 31 — with Style Control turned off and Labs-based ranking applied. Only companies rooted mainly in China's tech ecosystem are counted, including Alibaba, Moonshot AI, Baidu, Zhipu AI, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent and StepFun, among others. The final result is whichever company holds Lab Rank No. 2 within that group. If the Lab Rank can't be determined, the market compares each company's highest-ranked model, then Arena Score, and only as a last resort falls back to alphabetical order by company name.

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Polymarket Odds for Moonshot to Rank Second on Arena.ai Surge to 91%
Polymarket
Aug 16, 2026

Polymarket odds of Jack Lowden becoming the next James Bond fall to 22%

PPP market-tracking data shows that on Polymarket, the contract on whether Jack Lowden will be cast as the next James Bond has dropped to 22%, down 12% over the past 24 hours. The market resolves to "Yes" if the listed actor is officially announced as the next Bond by 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on Dec. 31, 2026, and to "No" otherwise. Resolution is based on official information from MGM, though a consensus from other reliable reports may also be used. Reports cited in the update say the final round of auditions for the next Bond took place this month, with roughly five to seven actors still in contention. Lowden had previously been seen as a leading candidate, though the final choice remains undisclosed. Sources also said additional names have joined the field, including Callum Turner, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, and Jonathan Bailey.

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Polymarket odds of Jack Lowden becoming the next James Bond fall to 22%