Academy Securities macro strategist Peter Tchir said in a recent Bloomberg analysis that the U.S. appears to be dealing more with a high-price problem than with a fresh bout of runaway inflation.
His argument is that the main tension for households may have shifted. Instead of prices still rising quickly, the issue may now be that prices which already moved higher have not fallen back.
Tchir compared Truflation’s real-time inflation gauge with official Consumer Price Index, or CPI, and core Personal Consumption Expenditures, or core PCE, data. He found that during 2021 and 2022, Truflation was clearly above the official figures. That relationship has now reversed, with the real-time gauge running clearly below more traditional inflation measures.
On that basis, he questioned whether the Federal Reserve could be overstating current price pressure if it continues to lean too heavily on lagging indicators such as CPI and core PCE.
Truflation has moved below official inflation gauges
Truflation is a real-time inflation tracking platform that pulls from more than 500 price sources across categories including retail, housing, transportation and food, and updates its U.S. CPI estimate every day.
Tchir’s comparison highlighted two periods:
- In 2021 and 2022, the Truflation real-time gauge was above official CPI, suggesting inflation on the ground may have been hotter than government data showed at the time.
- In August 2026, Truflation’s real-time U.S. CPI reading was already clearly below the official data, indicating that the pace of price changes is slowing.
That, in his view, suggests official data may still contain a lagging residue from the sharp price increases seen in 2021 and 2022, while the inflation pressure consumers and markets are feeling right now is lower.
Official data still point to inflation pressure
Tchir did not argue that official inflation measures are wrong. The Federal Reserve’s July report showed that through May, headline PCE was still up 4.1% year over year and core PCE stood at 3.4%, figures that still reflect ongoing inflation pressure.
The disagreement is over emphasis: should policymakers focus more on the current speed of price changes, or on the delayed appearance of past price increases in official statistics?
If real-time indicators are closer to present conditions, then market pricing for further rate hikes could be somewhat too hawkish, because those expectations are still based mainly on official releases rather than on the price moves consumers are currently experiencing.
What this could mean for the Fed
Tchir’s analysis points to two possible paths for the Federal Reserve.
- It can continue to rely on CPI and PCE, which could keep interest rates higher as a precaution.
- It can incorporate real-time inflation indicators, which may help it identify cooling inflation earlier and leave more room for earlier rate cuts.
At the August point referenced in the analysis, real-time price data had already begun to run below official gauges. Tchir said that gives the Fed another argument for easing sooner.