Clear Street analyst Owen Lau said the crypto market may have already moved through the worst of its latest downturn after a roughly 44% drawdown between Oct. 10 and Feb. 28. In a Wednesday note, he argued that both sentiment and fundamentals have improved in recent weeks, adding that the industry may be reaching an inflection point and that the current rally still has room to continue.
Price action has started to reflect that shift. Bitcoin is up about 11% over the past week and 8% in the last 24 hours, trading near $64,168.87. The rebound has brought the asset closer to a level many traders are watching closely, with $75,000 seen as a major resistance zone.
Washington policy signals are back in focus
Lau pointed to regulation as one of the main reasons behind his view. He said U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments on Tuesday regarding the stalled CLARITY Act increased the chances that the bill could pass Congress by the end of the summer. JPMorgan had previously described that kind of catalyst as the sort of trigger the digital asset market may need for a broader rally.
Lau did not publish a bitcoin price target in the note. His case rests more on changing conditions than on a single near-term number, especially as regulatory momentum in Washington begins to look more constructive for the sector.
Financial system access and institutional channels are expanding
He also highlighted progress in market infrastructure. Kraken’s banking subsidiary has received a Federal Reserve master account, giving it direct access to the central bank’s payment system. Lau described that development as a structural step, one that moves crypto-native institutions closer to the core of the U.S. financial system.
Institutional participation is another part of the picture. Morgan Stanley recently amended a filing for a proposed spot bitcoin ETF to add Coinbase Custody as a co-custodian alongside Bank of New York Mellon. The revision strengthens Coinbase’s standing inside the institutional crypto market.
Lau covers several major crypto firms, including Coinbase, Circle and Bullish. He currently rates Coinbase and Bullish as Buy, while Circle is rated Hold.
Some traders still see the rebound as a possible bull trap
The market is far from unanimous. Some traders have warned that the latest move could become a classic bull trap, where a short breakout pulls in buyers before prices reverse lower again.
Other analysts have pointed to heavy overhead supply and derivatives positioning as reasons for caution. In that view, a move into the $72,000 to $76,000 range could attract sellers instead of confirming a durable uptrend. Lau takes the opposite side, arguing that recent policy, infrastructure and institutional developments may signal a wider shift across the industry rather than a short-lived bounce.