Anthropic is reportedly moving toward a Nasdaq listing, and market speculation has at times put its target valuation as high as $2 trillion. New Constructs, an independent research firm known for bearish IPO calls, has taken a far lower view. In a report published on Oct. 6, it valued Anthropic at $150 billion and called the deal the "most ridiculous IPO of 2026."
The report said Wall Street is heading into an "unprecedented test of investor gullibility."
New Constructs puts Anthropic at $150 billion
Reports in the market say Anthropic is preparing to list on Nasdaq and could seek a valuation of up to $2 trillion. New Constructs rejected that figure in its Oct. 6 report, arguing the company should be worth only $150 billion.
Anthropic has not publicly responded to the report.
Four reasons behind the bearish view
New Constructs said Anthropic’s valuation case is stretched for four main reasons.
- The earnings hurdle is too high: the firm said a $2 trillion valuation would require Anthropic to generate annual profits equal to twice Nvidia’s net income over the past year. The report said Nvidia posted more than $190 billion in net income over the last four quarters.
- Losses are still widening: according to earlier reporting cited in the story, Anthropic posted $4.6 billion in revenue in 2025 but a net loss of $42 billion.
- Open-source models are taking market share: the report argued that once open-source models emerge, closed-source models struggle to remain profitable, adding, "We do not believe Anthropic has a viable business model."
- Anthropic’s own risk disclosures: the company has said AI could pose "catastrophic, even existential" risks to humanity. New Constructs said that should also give investors a reason to stay away.
Comparison with WeWork
New Constructs also compared Anthropic with WeWork. The firm said Anthropic’s contribution to society may be far greater than WeWork’s, but the risks tied to a $2 trillion valuation would be even larger.
It also argued that the purpose of the IPO is not to make ordinary investors rich, but to give Wall Street backers a chance to cash out.
Fast revenue growth, but no prospectus yet
Even as New Constructs made a sharply negative case, Anthropic’s operating figures have continued to draw attention.
The New York Times reported in September that Anthropic PBC’s annualized revenue is expected to top $100 billion this year. Chain News reported in August that Anthropic generated more than $11.5 billion in revenue in the second quarter of 2026, up about 14-fold year over year, and posted positive adjusted operating profit for the first time in a single quarter.
Still, Anthropic has not yet released a public prospectus. The story said New Constructs has not seen any formal filing, and the figures in its report were derived from media reports.
New Constructs got WeWork right, but missed on DoorDash
New Constructs founder and CEO David Trainer is well known on Wall Street for taking negative views on IPOs.
In 2019, the firm called WeWork the "most ridiculous IPO" of that year. WeWork was then carrying a private-market valuation of $47 billion, but withdrew its listing application six weeks after the report was published and filed for bankruptcy in 2023.
New Constructs also turned bearish on Allbirds (BIRD) in 2021. Allbirds briefly reached a market capitalization of $4.1 billion on its first day of trading, but this year sold assets to American Exchange Group for about $39 million and shifted to AI.
That said, the firm has also been wrong. It named DoorDash (DASH) the most ridiculous IPO of 2020, yet DoorDash closed its first trading day with a valuation above $60 billion and has since grown to $83 billion.
Trainer said in a 2021 CNBC interview, "Crazy things happen." He added that his firm would not be right every time, but said, "I have to stick with what I believe is the correct judgment."