Bitcoin reclaims technical support and enters a key confirmation range
In its latest weekly market observation, BIT said Bitcoin has already recovered most of its June decline and moved back above the 200-week moving average. According to the firm, the market has now entered a key confirmation zone between $63,000 and $66,000. BIT added that Ethereum outperformed on a weekly basis, suggesting that the rebound is being supported by broader market participation rather than a narrow move led only by Bitcoin.
Weaker payrolls fueled the rebound, but CPI is the next major test
BIT said the main macro catalyst behind the latest rebound was the weaker-than-expected June nonfarm payrolls report. In its view, the data points to tighter policy continuing to cool the economy, which in turn has supported expectations for a less restrictive path ahead. Even so, the firm said the market’s next important checkpoint will be the June CPI report due on July 14, which arrives ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting at the end of July. A softer inflation reading could help Bitcoin deliver a confirmed break above $66,000, while a stronger print may weaken the market’s current easing expectations.
ETF flows, derivatives positioning, and corporate supply remain in focus
On capital flows, spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a relatively visible net inflow after 10 straight days of net outflows. BIT cautioned, however, that a single day of improvement is still not enough to confirm a durable reversal in trend. The firm said sustained ETF inflows remain a critical signal to watch if the rebound is to continue. In derivatives markets, institutional money has shown a preference for buying puts and selling calls, indicating that traders are mainly hedging gains from the rebound rather than aggressively positioning for a further upside breakout. Retail participants, by contrast, are still more inclined to chase bullish structures.
BIT also highlighted fresh supply pressure from corporate treasury activity. After the report was published, Strategy disclosed that it had sold 3,588 BTC to meet dividend obligations, a sharp increase from its previous sale of just 32 BTC. According to BIT, that development adds a potential source of market supply and makes two confirmation signals even more important in the near term: continued ETF inflows and a high-volume break above $66,000.