BIT Official said in its weekly report that crypto market trading volume has fallen 80% from its high and is down about 60% from the peak seen in the fourth quarter of 2025. The report also said total crypto market capitalization has dropped 50%. According to BIT Official, a lasting rebound will be difficult to sustain if trading activity does not recover.
The firm said the market is still absorbing two negative factors: a hawkish Federal Reserve stance and stalled progress on the CLARITY Act. Even so, Bitcoin has remained in the $62,000 to $66,000 range, and BIT Official said it still expects an eventual upside breakout.
The report added that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has recently adopted a "say less, do less" communication approach, and that uncertainty around his policy stance is unsettling markets. It also cited prediction market data showing the odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law by the end of 2026 are now 32%. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said the Senate will prioritize other issues, leaving a narrower legislative window before the August recess.
BIT Official said in its weekly report that crypto market trading volume has fallen 80% from its high and is about 60% below the peak recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025. The report also said total crypto market capitalization has dropped 50%.
The firm said the market would struggle to build a sustained rebound if trading volume does not recover effectively. It said the market is still digesting two negative factors: a hawkish Federal Reserve stance and stalled progress on the CLARITY Act.
Even with that pressure, Bitcoin is still holding in the $62,000 to $66,000 range. BIT Official said it still expects Bitcoin to eventually break higher.
The report also said Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has recently adopted a "say less, do less" communication strategy, and that uncertainty around his policy stance is disturbing the market. Warsh has been known for a hawkish stance over the past two decades, though the market had previously expected that, with support from Donald Trump, he might push monetary policy in a more dovish direction. BIT Official said such a shift, if realized, could benefit Bitcoin.
Separately, prediction market data cited in the report showed the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law by the end of 2026 is now just 32%. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said the Senate will give priority to other issues. With the August recess approaching, the bill's remaining legislative window is narrowing.
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