Bitcoin is showing two starkly different signals from on-chain metrics. CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 reported that daily inflows to accumulation addresses have hit all-time highs, even as the market trades sideways. According to CW8900, whales are quietly building positions while keeping price action stable, rather than selling into the market and sparking panic among smaller investors. Retail participation has thinned significantly, with most casual traders already out, leaving only a thin crowd alongside accumulating whales.
In contrast, XWIN Research Japan argues that the bottom is “not confirmed.” The firm points to the Short-Term Holder SOPR (STH-SOPR) hovering near or below 1, indicating that short-term holders are selling at a loss. This pattern often appears in the early stage of bottom formation, but the firm stresses that selling pressure alone does not confirm a reversal unless buyers step in with clear demand.
Record Whale Inflows vs. Loss-Making Short-Term Exits
CW8900 said the pace of BTC moving into accumulation wallets is unprecedented. Large holders appear to be maintaining prices and adding exposure, which could increase the chance of an upward move if buying pressure persists without major disruption. Meanwhile, retail involvement has dropped sharply, leaving whales as the dominant force in the market.
Negative Coinbase Premium Hints at Weak US Demand
XWIN Research Japan also highlighted the Coinbase Premium Gap — the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges — which remains in negative territory. That reading suggests U.S. investors are not aggressively buying Bitcoin at current levels. During prior bull phases, the premium was consistently positive, supporting strong upward momentum. The absence of that condition today keeps the “bottom not confirmed” argument alive.
Together, the two views describe a divided market. Whale wallets appear to absorb supply, but weak U.S. demand prevents a clear bottom confirmation. Until one side gains the upper hand, Bitcoin’s direction remains an open question.