Bitcoin demand has fallen to its weakest point in four months. Capriole Investments’ Bitcoin Apparent Demand metric showed observed demand at -3,138 BTC this week, the lowest reading since mid-January. CryptoQuant said in its latest weekly outlook that overall Bitcoin demand has clearly turned negative, with spot market activity softening in recent weeks and cumulative exchange volume staying negative during the latest pullback.
That weakness in spot trading is now colliding with outflows from US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. Over the last 30 days, net ETF inflows dropped to their lowest level of the year. The reports cited financial and geopolitical uncertainty as a factor behind more cautious investor positioning.
The $78,000 zone is back in focus
Bitcoin had climbed from $60,000 to as high as $82,800 in recent weeks, a gain of about 38%. But the move did not hold above $80,000, and price has started drifting back toward the so-called true market mean at $78,300. Market participants often treat that level as an important technical reference because it reflects the average acquisition price of actively traded Bitcoin and is commonly used as a long-term bull-bear dividing line.
Glassnode said reclaiming the market mean is necessary for bullish momentum, but it is not sufficient on its own. The firm pointed to 2021, when Bitcoin traded sideways near that level for more than six months before rallying 174% to a new all-time high. Current conditions look less constructive. Momentum has weakened, retail participation has cooled, and aggressive selling in derivatives markets is adding to expectations of a deeper short-term retracement.
Spot and ETF flows are weakening at the same time
According to Glassnode, soft spot demand continues to weigh on Bitcoin’s price. Exchange volumes are declining, ETF flows are leaning to the sell side, and short-term risk is building. Changes in ETF positioning over the past three months have also fallen to their lowest levels, reinforcing the broader weak trend.
CryptoQuant said periods when both spot demand and ETF flows decline together have historically been linked not to price stability, but to steeper market drops. Analysts are now watching $78,000 and above as the key short-term threshold. If Bitcoin fails to break that range decisively, the market may remain exposed to additional downside. Some forecasts cited in the report see a possible pullback toward $65,000 in the coming weeks.