The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% on Wednesday, a decision that largely matched market expectations. Crypto prices moved lower after the announcement, while U.S. equities also came under pressure as traders weighed both hawkish dissent inside the Fed and a separate geopolitical shock.
Bitcoin and Ethereum edged lower after the decision
Following the Fed’s announcement, Bitcoin slipped about 1% to $63,890. Ethereum also fell by around 1% and was trading a little above $1,900.
The decision marked the fifth consecutive meeting with no change in rates. The committee last moved in December 2025, when it cut rates by 25 basis points. That was also the final rate move made by Jerome Powell before Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s pick for Fed chair, took over. Rates have not moved since then.
Warsh’s communication style has stayed consistent as well. He has said he intends to provide less “forward guidance” than his predecessors, leaving markets with fewer signals about the policy path ahead.
No new economic projections this time
Wednesday’s meeting did not include a Summary of Economic Projections, the quarterly release that contains the dot plot showing where each Fed official expects rates to end up. Without that update, traders were left without a fresh forecast to price in. The next set of projections is due in September.
What the committee did say was that the economy is “expanding at a solid pace,” while inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. It pointed in part to the situation in the Middle East, which has lifted energy prices.
Energy prices and inflation are still central to the outlook
That language matters for crypto markets. At the June meeting, nearly half of FOMC members indicated they would support a rate hike before the end of the year. Oil has traded above $100 a barrel in recent weeks, keeping price pressure in place. A September rate increase is no longer something markets can dismiss.
The Fed adjusts rates based on economic data, including inflation, employment, and growth, as it responds to signs of overheating or slowing in the economy. Higher rates raise borrowing costs across mortgages, business loans, and credit card balances, which can slow spending and ease price pressures. Lower rates tend to make credit cheaper and can support greater risk-taking and investment activity.
For crypto assets, lower rates have historically acted as support because capital is more likely to move toward higher-yield bets when safer alternatives offer less return. The opposite dynamic also applies. Even the prospect of a hike can weigh on prices.
Three regional Fed presidents opposed the hold
Three regional Fed bank presidents voted against holding rates steady and instead supported an immediate 25-basis-point hike: Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis, and Lorie Logan of Dallas. According to the report, that was the most hawkish bloc of dissents since Warsh became chair.
Iran-related developments added to market pressure
Markets were also responding to the Iran attack. Before the Fed decision was released, oil had climbed nearly $4 to $83, adding to inflation pressure and strengthening the case made by hawkish policymakers.
At least 20 people were killed in joint retaliatory strikes by the United States and Saudi Arabia on Iranian-backed forces in Iraq.
Next FOMC meeting
The next FOMC decision is scheduled for September 16, 2026. At that meeting, the committee is expected to publish updated economic projections and a new dot plot.