Bitcoin continued its decline on Tuesday, approaching the $62,000 level, while Ethereum fell below $1,700. Both BTC and ETH have shed nearly 20% over the past 30 days. The sell-off is driven by a combination of macro policy tightening and geopolitical jitters.
Fed Turns Hawkish, Dampening Risk Appetite
At the June 18 FOMC meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% but notably removed dovish language from its statement. The dot plot shifted from signaling rate cuts to implying potential hikes, with 9 out of 18 officials now projecting at least one rate increase this year. The probability of a December hike has risen sharply compared to a month ago. The hawkish pivot has strengthened the U.S. dollar and weighed on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Collapses, Triggering Safe-Haven Flows
Earlier this month, optimism over a U.S.-Iran ceasefire had pushed Bitcoin above $67,000. However, on June 19, the signing ceremony collapsed as Iran walked away from negotiations. Given the crypto market's 24/7 trading nature, Bitcoin was the first to price in this shock. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded outflows for six consecutive weeks, further reducing buying support.
Adding to the pressure, Deribit is set to see approximately $10.6 billion in options expiring on June 26, amplifying quarter-end caution. Analysts note that leverage has been largely cleared out and market positioning has turned defensive. The near-term direction will depend on Thursday's PCE inflation data and whether spot ETF flows can turn positive again.